PHI @ NYG Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 18 slate
PHI Eagles
18
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
PHI72%18
NYG28%13
13
NYG Giants

Projected Team Stats

PHI
NYG
72% Win Probability 28%
317 Total Yards 270
217 Passing Yards 213
101 Rushing Yards 57
1.4 Sacks 3.3
1.3 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts234 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley51 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC DeVonta Smith5.3 rec, 77 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Dontayvion Wicks3.3 rec, 48 yds, 0.3 TD
NYG
PASS Jameis Winston222 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo35 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Malik Nabers5.9 rec, 74 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Malachi Fields3.1 rec, 41 yds, 0.1 TD

Eagles by 4.8

Eagles are the pick here, favoured by 4.8 and winning 72% of 50 sims (projected 18-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Tariq Woolen (Eagles) - winner: Tariq Woolen, holding him to 2.4 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Eagles — a 51% win rate yields only 3.4 sacks and 14.7 pressures a game, led by Jonathan Greenard (2.7 sacks, 6.0 pressures a game).
  • The Eagles' quarterback should have time; the Giants win just 50% of reps for 6.6 sacks a game, Abdul Carter (3.9 sacks, 9.7 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • DeVonta Smith headlines the Eagles' receiving corps — 6.0 catches for 63 yds a game on 57% separation.
  • Through the air it is Malik Nabers' show for the Giants: 61 yds a game, open on 50% of routes.
  • Zack Baun (Eagles) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 39% of routes, good for 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Eagles ride Saquon Barkley: 12 carries, 51 yds a game (4.3 a carry), doing his damage to the right side.
  • Cam Skattebo is the workhorse for the Giants, churning 35 yds a game at 2.4 a carry against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

PHI by 4.8 (72% to win) Projected total 32 pts Jalen Hurts ~234 pass yds (250+ 36%) Saquon Barkley ~51 rush yds (70+ 22%) DeVonta Smith ~77 rec yds, 5.3 rec (70+ 58%)