PHI @ JAX Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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PHI Eagles
14
PROJECTION
PHI 17 – JAX 19
Week 5 50-sim average Sun 11 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
PHI24%14 17
JAX76%21 19
21
JAX Jaguars
✓ RESULT JAX by 2 model JAX by 7.2, off by 5.2
✓ SPREAD PHI +7.5 WIN line at publish JAX -7.5
✓ TOTAL 36 pts UNDER O/U 41.5, model 35 lean under

Projected Team Stats

PHI
JAX
24% Win Probability 76%
267 Total Yards 322
172 Passing Yards 209
96 Rushing Yards 113
2.1 Sacks 2.8
1.4 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts192 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley43 rush yds
REC DeVonta Smith4.3 rec, 55 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Dallas Goedert3.0 rec, 35 yds, 0.2 TD
JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence208 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten66 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Parker Washington4.0 rec, 56 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jakobi Meyers3.6 rec, 44 yds, 0.2 TD

Jaguars by 7.2

Run it 50 times and Jaguars win 76% of them, by 7.2 on average (21-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) vs Jihaad Campbell (Eagles) - winner: Bhayshul Tuten, 5.0 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
In the Trenches
  • The Jaguars may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 6.3 sacks a game — Josh Hines-Allen (3.6 sacks, 8.4 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Eagles get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (3.9 sacks a game), with Jonathan Greenard (2.6 sacks, 6.7 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • The Jaguars' aerial attack runs through Parker Washington (46 yds a game, open on 55% of routes).
  • DeVonta Smith headlines the Eagles' receiving corps — 5.1 catches for 41 yds a game on 56% separation.
  • Foyesade Oluokun (Jaguars) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 37% of routes — and 0.2 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Bhayshul Tuten: 66 yds a game at 5.0 a carry for the Jaguars, with the holes opening off right tackle.
  • On the ground, the Eagles ride Saquon Barkley: 11 carries, 43 yds a game (3.7 a carry), with his best work off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineJAX -7.2
Market lineJAX -7.5
Sim total35
Market total41.5
JAX by 7.2 (76% to win) Projected total 35 pts Trevor Lawrence ~208 pass yds (250+ 12%) Bhayshul Tuten ~66 rush yds (70+ 32%) Parker Washington ~56 rec yds, 4.0 rec (70+ 28%)