PHI @ CHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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PHI Eagles
23
PROJECTION
PHI 7 – CHI 27
Week 3 50-sim average Mon 28 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
PHI60%23 7
CHI40%21 27
21
CHI Bears
✗ RESULT CHI by 20 model PHI by 2.4, off by 22.4
✓ SPREAD CHI +4.5 WIN line at publish PHI -4.5
✗ TOTAL 34 pts UNDER O/U 41.5, model 44 lean over

Projected Team Stats

PHI
CHI
60% Win Probability 40%
350 Total Yards 325
224 Passing Yards 185
126 Rushing Yards 139
3.5 Sacks 2.7
1.5 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts236 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley58 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC DeVonta Smith5.2 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Dallas Goedert3.7 rec, 40 yds, 0.3 TD
CHI
PASS Caleb Williams207 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift59 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Rome Odunze5.2 rec, 70 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Luther Burden III3.0 rec, 36 yds, 0.2 TD

Eagles by 2.4

Eagles are the pick here, favoured by 2.4 and winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 23-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Rome Odunze (Bears) vs Quinyon Mitchell (Eagles) - winner: Quinyon Mitchell, holding him to 44 yds on just 39% open, 0.7 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
  • Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs Cam Lewis (Bears) - winner: Saquon Barkley, 4.8 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • D'Andre Swift (Bears) vs Jihaad Campbell (Eagles) - winner: D'Andre Swift, 4.6 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
In the Trenches
  • The Bears' line should hold up: the Eagles win just 49% of their reps, mustering 6.5 sacks and 29.5 pressures a game, and Jonathan Greenard (3.9 sacks, 8.9 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Bears get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (5.6 sacks a game), led by Montez Sweat (3.4 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • DeVonta Smith should find soft spots all day, open 51% of the time for 52 yds a game.
  • Look for Rome Odunze to eat: 5.4 catches and 44 yds a game for the Bears.
  • On the back end, Zack Baun (Eagles) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 35% of routes — and 0.2 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Saquon Barkley is the workhorse for the Eagles, churning 58 yds a game at 4.8 a carry, finding room off the right edge and controlling the clock.
  • The Bears hand it to D'Andre Swift early and often, 13 carries for 59 yds a game at 4.6 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

Sim linePHI -2.4
Market linePHI -4.5
Sim total44
Market total41.5
PHI by 2.4 (60% to win) Projected total 44 pts Jalen Hurts ~236 pass yds (250+ 44%) D'Andre Swift ~59 rush yds (70+ 28%) DeVonta Smith ~73 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 48%)