NYJ @ DET Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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NYJ Jets
16
PROJECTION
NYJ 24 – DET 31
Week 3 50-sim average Sun 27 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
NYJ32%16 24
DET68%23 31
23
DET Lions
✓ RESULT DET by 7 model DET by 6.9, off by 0.1
✓ SPREAD DET -6.5 WIN line at publish DET -6.5
✗ TOTAL 55 pts OVER O/U 47.5, model 39 lean under

Projected Team Stats

NYJ
DET
32% Win Probability 68%
297 Total Yards 335
202 Passing Yards 244
95 Rushing Yards 91
1.9 Sacks 2.5
1.7 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

NYJ
PASS Geno Smith219 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Breece Hall59 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Garrett Wilson5.4 rec, 66 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Adonai Mitchell2.7 rec, 39 yds
DET
PASS Jared Goff248 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs64 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown6.0 rec, 76 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jameson Williams4.0 rec, 56 yds, 0.2 TD

Lions by 6.9

Lions are the pick here, favoured by 6.9 and winning 68% of 50 sims (projected 23-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Dane Belton (Jets) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 4.6 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (Jets) - winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown, open on 64% of routes for 8.0/9.5, 69 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • The Lions may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 4.8 sacks a game — Aidan Hutchinson (3.3 sacks, 8.1 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Lions' line should hold up: the Jets win just 50% of their reps, mustering 3.7 sacks and 10.6 pressures a game — Will McDonald IV (1.6 sacks, 4.5 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • The Lions will live and die with Amon-Ra St. Brown, who comes open 64% of the time (69 yds a game).
  • The Jets' aerial attack runs through Garrett Wilson (44 yds a game, open on 56% of routes).
  • Thomas Harper (Lions) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 43% of routes with 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Jahmyr Gibbs: 64 yds a game at 4.6 a carry for the Lions, finding room off the right edge.
  • The Jets' run game leans on Breece Hall — 15 carries, 59 yds a game (4.0 a carry), with his best work off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDET -6.9
Market lineDET -6.5
Sim total39
Market total47.5
DET by 6.9 (68% to win) Projected total 39 pts Jared Goff ~248 pass yds (250+ 44%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~64 rush yds (70+ 34%) Amon-Ra St. Brown ~76 rec yds, 6.0 rec (70+ 48%)