NYJ @ CHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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NYJ Jets
18
PROJECTION
NYJ 12 – CHI 23
Week 4 50-sim average Sun 4 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
NYJ26%18 12
CHI74%24 23
24
CHI Bears
✓ RESULT CHI by 11 model CHI by 5.7, off by 5.3
✓ SPREAD CHI -3 WIN line at publish CHI -3
✓ TOTAL 35 pts UNDER O/U 42.5, model 41 lean under

Projected Team Stats

NYJ
CHI
26% Win Probability 74%
302 Total Yards 339
198 Passing Yards 212
104 Rushing Yards 127
2.3 Sacks 2.7
1.3 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

NYJ
PASS Geno Smith215 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Breece Hall63 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Garrett Wilson5.9 rec, 72 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Kenyon Sadiq3.5 rec, 37 yds, 0.3 TD
CHI
PASS Caleb Williams220 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift60 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Rome Odunze5.3 rec, 75 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Luther Burden III3.8 rec, 47 yds, 0.2 TD

Bears by 5.7

The sim sides with Bears: a 5.7-point edge and a 74% win rate over 50 runs (24-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
In the Trenches
  • The Bears may have to manufacture pressure, winning 49% up front for 4.9 sacks a game (Montez Sweat (2.8 sacks, 8.2 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Jets — a 49% win rate, 4.6 sacks and 26.7 pressures a game, and Will McDonald IV (1.6 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Rome Odunze is the go-to for the Bears, separating on 52% of routes for 59 yds a game.
  • Garrett Wilson headlines the Jets' receiving corps — 6.5 catches for 54 yds a game on 55% separation.
  • Few balls get past Minkah Fitzpatrick (Jets), who yields separation on 40% of routes — and 0.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Bears' run game leans on D'Andre Swift — 14 carries, 60 yds a game (4.3 a carry), with his best work to the right side.
  • On the ground, the Jets ride Breece Hall: 16 carries, 63 yds a game (4.1 a carry), finding room off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCHI -5.7
Market lineCHI -3
Sim total41
Market total42.5
CHI by 5.7 (74% to win) Projected total 41 pts Caleb Williams ~220 pass yds (250+ 34%) Breece Hall ~63 rush yds (70+ 44%) Rome Odunze ~75 rec yds, 5.3 rec (70+ 58%)