NYG @ SEA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 14 slate
NYG Giants
12
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
NYG20%12
SEA80%21
21
SEA Seahawks

Projected Team Stats

NYG
SEA
20% Win Probability 80%
265 Total Yards 331
202 Passing Yards 234
62 Rushing Yards 97
2.8 Sacks 1.7
1.6 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

NYG
PASS Jameis Winston213 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo36 rush yds
REC Malik Nabers4.8 rec, 62 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Malachi Fields3.5 rec, 44 yds
SEA
PASS Sam Darnold244 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Emanuel Wilson48 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba6.0 rec, 83 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Cooper Kupp3.9 rec, 48 yds, 0.1 TD

Seahawks by 9.6

Run it 50 times and Seahawks win 80% of them, by 9.6 on average (21-12).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Josh Jobe (Seahawks) - winner: Josh Jobe, holding him to 2.6 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
  • Emanuel Wilson (Seahawks) vs Greg Newsome II (Giants) - winner: Greg Newsome II, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Andru Phillips (Giants) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 63% of routes for 8.5/10.1, 79 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Seahawks — a 49% win rate yields only 3.3 sacks and 11.3 pressures a game, Byron Murphy II (2.2 sacks, 0.8 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Seahawks' quarterback should have time; the Giants win just 50% of reps for 5.4 sacks a game, with Abdul Carter (3.7 sacks, 8.2 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • The Seahawks' aerial attack runs through Jaxon Smith-Njigba (79 yds a game, open on 63% of routes).
  • Through the air it is Malik Nabers' show for the Giants: 42 yds a game, open on 48% of routes.
  • Julian Love (Seahawks) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 37% of his coverage snaps, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Emanuel Wilson sets the tempo for the Seahawks — 48 yds a game on the ground at 3.2 a carry, with his best work off the right edge into a stout front.
  • The Giants' run game leans on Cam Skattebo — 14 carries, 36 yds a game (2.6 a carry) into a stout front.

Model vs Market

SEA by 9.6 (80% to win) Projected total 33 pts Sam Darnold ~244 pass yds (250+ 54%) Emanuel Wilson ~48 rush yds (70+ 14%) Jaxon Smith-Njigba ~83 rec yds, 6.0 rec (70+ 64%)