NYG @ DAL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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NYG Giants
17
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
NYG20%17
DAL80%25
25
DAL Cowboys

Projected Team Stats

NYG
DAL
20% Win Probability 80%
300 Total Yards 398
246 Passing Yards 292
54 Rushing Yards 106
2.6 Sacks 1.3
1.0 Turnovers 0.7

Projected Leaders

NYG
PASS Jameis Winston251 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo33 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Malik Nabers5.3 rec, 78 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Isaiah Likely3.6 rec, 44 yds, 0.3 TD
DAL
PASS Dak Prescott299 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams59 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb6.5 rec, 92 yds, 0.6 TD
REC George Pickens4.7 rec, 63 yds, 0.4 TD

Cowboys by 8.7

The model leans Cowboys by 8.7, winning 80% of 50 sims (projected 25-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Abdul Carter (Giants) vs Tyler Guyton (Cowboys) - winner: Abdul Carter, winning 57% of reps for 3.9 sacks and 9.8 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Caleb Downs (Cowboys) - winner: Caleb Downs, holding him to 2.2 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
  • Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs Micah McFadden (Giants) - winner: Javonte Williams, 4.8 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) vs Andru Phillips (Giants) - winner: CeeDee Lamb, open on 65% of routes for 8.4/10.3, 79 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • The Cowboys may have to manufacture pressure, winning 49% up front for 3.0 sacks a game (Rashan Gary (2.4 sacks, 4.2 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Giants may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 5.5 sacks a game — Abdul Carter (3.9 sacks, 9.8 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • CeeDee Lamb headlines the Cowboys' receiving corps — 8.4 catches for 79 yds a game on 65% separation.
  • The Giants will live and die with Malik Nabers, who comes open 50% of the time (51 yds a game).
  • Receivers won't find much room against Joey Porter Jr. (Cowboys): 41% separation allowed, adding 0.7 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Cowboys ride Javonte Williams: 12 carries, 59 yds a game (4.8 a carry), doing his damage off the right edge and controlling the clock.
  • Cam Skattebo is the workhorse for the Giants, churning 33 yds a game at 2.2 a carry against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

DAL by 8.7 (80% to win) Projected total 42 pts Dak Prescott ~299 pass yds (250+ 76%) Javonte Williams ~59 rush yds (70+ 30%) CeeDee Lamb ~92 rec yds, 6.5 rec (70+ 66%)