NO @ NYG Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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NO Saints
20
PROJECTION
NO 34 – NYG 27
Week 6 50-sim average Sun 18 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
NO46%20 34
NYG54%22 27
22
NYG Giants
✗ RESULT NO by 7 model NYG by 2.0, off by 9.0
✗ SPREAD NYG +0.5 LOSS line at publish NO -0.5
✗ TOTAL 61 pts OVER O/U 45, model 42 lean under

Projected Team Stats

NO
NYG
46% Win Probability 54%
340 Total Yards 345
278 Passing Yards 274
63 Rushing Yards 71
1.4 Sacks 2.7
1.4 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

NO
PASS Tyler Shough288 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Alvin Kamara27 rush yds
REC Chris Olave8.8 rec, 127 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Devaughn Vele3.3 rec, 41 yds, 0.2 TD
NYG
PASS Jameis Winston277 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo39 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Malik Nabers6.1 rec, 90 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Isaiah Likely4.2 rec, 54 yds, 0.5 TD

Giants by 2.0

The sim sides with Giants: a 2.0-point edge and a 54% win rate over 50 runs (22-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Abdul Carter (Giants) vs Asim Richards (Saints) - winner: Abdul Carter, winning 58% of reps for 3.6 sacks and 9.1 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Martin Emerson Jr. (Saints) - winner: Martin Emerson Jr., holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
  • Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs Greg Newsome II (Giants) - winner: Greg Newsome II, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
  • Chris Olave (Saints) vs Andru Phillips (Giants) - winner: Chris Olave, open on 62% of routes for 9.6/13.8, 98 yds a game - open at will.
  • Malik Nabers (Giants) vs Kool-Aid McKinstry (Saints) - winner: Malik Nabers, open on 60% of routes for 7.3/9.7, 72 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • The Saints' quarterback should have time; the Giants win just 51% of reps for 5.2 sacks a game, with Abdul Carter (3.6 sacks, 9.1 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Saints get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (3.4 sacks a game), Cameron Jordan (0.5 sacks, 3.8 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Malik Nabers' show for the Giants: 72 yds a game, open on 60% of routes.
  • The Saints' aerial attack runs through Chris Olave (98 yds a game, open on 62% of routes).
On the Ground
  • Cam Skattebo sets the tempo for the Giants — 39 yds a game on the ground at 2.7 a carry into a stout front.
  • Alvin Kamara sets the tempo for the Saints — 27 yds a game on the ground at 2.7 a carry into a stout front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNYG -2.0
Market lineNO -0.5
Sim total42
Market total45
NYG by 2.0 (54% to win) Projected total 42 pts Tyler Shough ~288 pass yds (250+ 72%) Chris Olave ~127 rec yds, 8.8 rec (70+ 88%)