NO @ CHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 11 slate
NO Saints
19
PROJECTION
Week 11 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
NO40%19
CHI60%26
26
CHI Bears

Projected Team Stats

NO
CHI
40% Win Probability 60%
332 Total Yards 382
262 Passing Yards 247
70 Rushing Yards 135
2.5 Sacks 2.5
1.3 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

NO
PASS Tyler Shough274 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Alvin Kamara29 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Chris Olave7.9 rec, 112 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Devaughn Vele4.1 rec, 46 yds, 0.3 TD
CHI
PASS Caleb Williams251 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift58 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Rome Odunze5.8 rec, 88 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Luther Burden III4.1 rec, 54 yds, 0.2 TD

Bears by 6.1

The model leans Bears by 6.1, winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 26-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs Devin Bush (Bears) - winner: Devin Bush, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Chris Olave (Saints) vs Clark Phillips III (Bears) - winner: Chris Olave, open on 59% of routes for 8.6/12.3, 84 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Bears — a 50% win rate, 5.3 sacks and 18.5 pressures a game (Montez Sweat (2.1 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Saints — a 49% win rate, 5.1 sacks and 26.7 pressures a game (Carl Granderson (1.6 sacks, 8.1 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Bears lean on Rome Odunze, good for 7.8 catches and 68 yds a game while breaking open on 51% of his routes.
  • Chris Olave headlines the Saints' receiving corps — 8.6 catches for 84 yds a game on 59% separation.
  • Few balls get past Devin Bush (Bears), who yields separation on 40% of routes with 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Bears hand it to D'Andre Swift early and often, 14 carries for 58 yds a game at 4.2 a carry, with his best work to the right side.
  • The Saints' run game leans on Alvin Kamara — 10 carries, 29 yds a game (3.0 a carry), doing his damage off right tackle into a stout front.

Model vs Market

CHI by 6.1 (60% to win) Projected total 45 pts Tyler Shough ~274 pass yds (250+ 68%) D'Andre Swift ~58 rush yds (70+ 22%) Chris Olave ~112 rec yds, 7.9 rec (70+ 78%)