NO @ BLT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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NO Saints
16
PROJECTION
NO 24 – BLT 17
Week 2 50-sim average Sun 20 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
NO30%16 24
BLT70%20 17
20
BLT Ravens
✗ RESULT NO by 7 model BLT by 4.8, off by 11.8
✓ SPREAD NO +8 WIN line at publish BLT -8
✓ TOTAL 41 pts UNDER O/U 47.5, model 36 lean under

Projected Team Stats

NO
BLT
30% Win Probability 70%
279 Total Yards 327
230 Passing Yards 184
49 Rushing Yards 143
2.4 Sacks 1.8
1.7 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

NO
PASS Tyler Shough240 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Travis Etienne Jr.27 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Chris Olave6.6 rec, 88 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Juwan Johnson3.6 rec, 39 yds, 0.3 TD
BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson196 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry87 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Zay Flowers4.6 rec, 66 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Mark Andrews2.9 rec, 33 yds, 0.3 TD

Ravens by 4.8

Run it 50 times and Ravens win 70% of them, by 4.8 on average (20-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Julian Blackmon (Saints) - winner: Derrick Henry, 4.9 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • Travis Etienne Jr. (Saints) vs Teddye Buchanan (Ravens) - winner: Teddye Buchanan, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
  • Chase Young (Saints) vs Roger Rosengarten (Ravens) - winner: Chase Young, winning 55% of reps for 1.3 sacks and 3.4 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
  • Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs Kool-Aid McKinstry (Saints) - winner: Zay Flowers, open on 62% of routes for 5.6/7.5, 52 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Ravens — a 49% win rate, 3.3 sacks and 12.5 pressures a game, and Trey Hendrickson (1.7 sacks, 3.9 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Saints may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 4.7 sacks a game, and Carl Granderson (1.2 sacks, 6.9 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Zay Flowers is the go-to for the Ravens, separating on 62% of routes for 52 yds a game.
  • Chris Olave should find soft spots all day, open 54% of the time for 61 yds a game.
  • Few balls get past Kyle Hamilton (Ravens), who yields separation on 39% of routes — and 0.0 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Derrick Henry is the workhorse for the Ravens, churning 87 yds a game at 4.9 a carry, finding room to the right side and controlling the clock.
  • Travis Etienne Jr. is the workhorse for the Saints, churning 27 yds a game at 2.9 a carry against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineBLT -4.8
Market lineBLT -8
Sim total36
Market total47.5
BLT by 4.8 (70% to win) Projected total 36 pts Tyler Shough ~240 pass yds (250+ 36%) Derrick Henry ~87 rush yds (70+ 72%) Chris Olave ~88 rec yds, 6.6 rec (70+ 68%)