NE @ NYJ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 16 slate
NE Patriots
18
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
NE48%18
NYJ52%19
19
NYJ Jets

Projected Team Stats

NE
NYJ
48% Win Probability 52%
282 Total Yards 287
196 Passing Yards 177
86 Rushing Yards 110
3.2 Sacks 2.6
1.4 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

NE
PASS Drake Maye209 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson40 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Romeo Doubs3.5 rec, 49 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Efton Chism III3.2 rec, 47 yds, 0.3 TD
NYJ
PASS Geno Smith193 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Breece Hall66 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Garrett Wilson5.9 rec, 67 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Kenyon Sadiq3.3 rec, 29 yds, 0.2 TD

Jets by 0.5

The model leans Jets by 0.5, winning 52% of 50 sims (projected 19-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jowon Briggs (Jets) vs Ben Brown (Patriots) - winner: Jowon Briggs, winning 56% of reps for 0.8 sacks and 4.5 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
In the Trenches
  • The Patriots' quarterback should have time; the Jets win just 50% of reps for 5.3 sacks a game, with Kingsley Enagbare (1.7 sacks, 7.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Patriots get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (5.8 sacks a game), with Dre'Mont Jones (2.2 sacks, 8.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • The Jets will live and die with Garrett Wilson, who comes open 50% of the time (51 yds a game).
  • Romeo Doubs headlines the Patriots' receiving corps — 4.2 catches for 37 yds a game on 51% separation.
  • Few balls get past Carlton Davis III (Patriots), who yields separation on 38% of routes — and 0.3 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Jets lean on Breece Hall, 16 carries for 66 yds a game at 4.2 a carry, with the holes opening to the right side.
  • The Patriots' run game leans on Rhamondre Stevenson — 12 carries, 40 yds a game (3.4 a carry).

Model vs Market

NYJ by 0.5 (52% to win) Projected total 37 pts Drake Maye ~209 pass yds (250+ 28%) Breece Hall ~66 rush yds (70+ 44%) Garrett Wilson ~67 rec yds, 5.9 rec (70+ 48%)