NE @ DET Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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NE Patriots
22
PROJECTION
Week 10 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
NE40%22
DET60%26
26
DET Lions

Projected Team Stats

NE
DET
40% Win Probability 60%
357 Total Yards 382
239 Passing Yards 255
118 Rushing Yards 127
2.3 Sacks 3.4
1.5 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

NE
PASS Drake Maye259 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson47 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Romeo Doubs4.3 rec, 71 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Efton Chism III3.2 rec, 49 yds, 0.4 TD
DET
PASS Jared Goff261 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs86 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown5.8 rec, 70 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jameson Williams3.7 rec, 50 yds, 0.3 TD

Lions by 4.6

The model leans Lions by 4.6, winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 26-22).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Craig Woodson (Patriots) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.6 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Lions — a 50% win rate yields only 6.5 sacks and 29.0 pressures a game, led by Aidan Hutchinson (4.1 sacks, 8.5 pressures a game).
  • The Lions' quarterback should have time; the Patriots win just 51% of reps for 4.6 sacks a game, Dre'Mont Jones (0.9 sacks, 5.8 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • The Lions' aerial attack runs through Amon-Ra St. Brown (59 yds a game, open on 51% of routes).
  • Expect the Patriots to feed Romeo Doubs: 4.3 catches for 41 yds a game, open 52% of the time.
  • On the back end, Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 35% of routes, adding 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Jahmyr Gibbs carries the load for the Lions, 15 carries for 86 yds a game at 5.6 a carry, finding room to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.
  • On the ground, the Patriots ride Rhamondre Stevenson: 11 carries, 47 yds a game (4.2 a carry), with his best work off the right edge.

Model vs Market

DET by 4.6 (60% to win) Projected total 48 pts Jared Goff ~261 pass yds (250+ 50%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~86 rush yds (70+ 70%) Romeo Doubs ~71 rec yds, 4.3 rec (70+ 46%)