NE @ BUF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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NE Patriots
23
PROJECTION
NE 29 – BUF 26
Week 4 50-sim average Sun 4 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
NE54%23 29
BUF46%21 26
21
BUF Bills
✓ RESULT NE by 3 model NE by 1.8, off by 1.2
✓ VALUE NE +6.5 WIN line at publish BUF -6.5
✗ TOTAL 55 pts OVER O/U 48.5, model 44 lean under

Projected Team Stats

NE
BUF
54% Win Probability 46%
346 Total Yards 324
215 Passing Yards 188
132 Rushing Yards 137
3.1 Sacks 3.1
1.7 Turnovers 1.6

Projected Leaders

NE
PASS Drake Maye228 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson56 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Romeo Doubs4.8 rec, 70 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Demario Douglas2.6 rec, 39 yds, 0.2 TD
BUF
PASS Josh Allen203 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH James Cook64 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC DJ Moore6.0 rec, 75 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Khalil Shakir3.5 rec, 37 yds, 0.1 TD

Patriots by 1.8

Patriots are the pick here, favoured by 1.8 and winning 54% of 50 sims (projected 23-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • DJ Moore (Bills) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 54 yds on just 40% open, 0.7 INT a game, - shut down all game.
  • Christian Barmore (Patriots) vs Alec Anderson (Bills) - winner: Christian Barmore, winning 55% of reps for 0.3 sacks and 3.9 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
In the Trenches
  • The Patriots may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 6.7 sacks a game (Dre'Mont Jones (2.3 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Bills — a 50% win rate, 5.8 sacks and 28.2 pressures a game (Greg Rousseau (3.4 sacks, 8.7 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Look for Romeo Doubs to eat: 4.9 catches and 44 yds a game for the Patriots.
  • DJ Moore is the go-to for the Bills, separating on 40% of routes for 54 yds a game.
  • Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 38% of routes, adding 0.6 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Rhamondre Stevenson sets the tempo for the Patriots — 56 yds a game on the ground at 4.5 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle.
  • Expect a steady diet of James Cook: 64 yds a game at 4.6 a carry for the Bills, churning to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNE -1.8
Market lineBUF -6.5
Sim total44
Market total48.5
NE by 1.8 (54% to win) Projected total 44 pts Drake Maye ~228 pass yds (250+ 42%) James Cook ~64 rush yds (70+ 40%) DJ Moore ~75 rec yds, 6.0 rec (70+ 50%)