MIN @ TB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

MIN Vikings

PROJECTION

MIN 23 – TB 16

Week 3 50-sim average Sun 27 Sep

	WIN%	PROJ	FINAL
MIN	48%	18	23
TB	52%	19	16

TB Buccaneers

✗ RESULT MIN by 7 model TB by 0.9, off by 7.9

✗ SPREAD TB +1.5 LOSS line at publish MIN -1.5

✓ TOTAL 39 pts UNDER O/U 42.5, model 37 lean under

MIN

48% Win Probability 52%

272 Total Yards 301

189 Passing Yards 217

84 Rushing Yards 84

2.1 Sacks 2.7

0.9 Turnovers 1.3

MIN

PASS

Kyler Murray207 pass yds, 1.1 TD

RUSH

Aaron Jones43 rush yds, 0.2 TD

REC

Justin Jefferson4.8 rec, 65 yds, 0.3 TD

REC

Jauan Jennings3.7 rec, 45 yds, 0.2 TD

PASS

Baker Mayfield226 pass yds, 1.2 TD

RUSH

Bucky Irving37 rush yds, 0.2 TD

REC

Emeka Egbuka4.3 rec, 64 yds, 0.4 TD

REC

Chris Godwin4.8 rec, 59 yds, 0.3 TD

Run it 50 times and Buccaneers win 52% of them, by 0.9 on average (19-18).

Keys to the Game

Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Charles Demmings (Vikings) - winner: Charles Demmings, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - the front wins up front.

In the Trenches

The Vikings' line should hold up: the Buccaneers win just 50% of their reps, mustering 4.9 sacks and 25.0 pressures a game — Yaya Diaby (2.3 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game) out front.
The Vikings get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (5.3 sacks a game), led by Dallas Turner (2.6 sacks, 7.7 pressures a game).

Through the Air

Look for Chris Godwin to eat: 4.5 catches and 39 yds a game for the Buccaneers.
The Vikings' aerial attack runs through Justin Jefferson (49 yds a game, open on 57% of routes).
James Pierre (Vikings) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 44% of routes with 0.4 INT a game.

On the Ground

Bucky Irving is the workhorse for the Buccaneers, churning 37 yds a game at 3.2 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle against a stingy front.
The Vikings lean on Aaron Jones, 13 carries for 43 yds a game at 3.4 a carry, with his best work off right tackle.