MIN @ NE Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 14 slate
MIN Vikings
18
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
MIN32%18
NE68%22
22
NE Patriots

Projected Team Stats

MIN
NE
32% Win Probability 68%
258 Total Yards 341
167 Passing Yards 228
91 Rushing Yards 113
3.1 Sacks 3.3
1.2 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

MIN
PASS Kyler Murray188 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones47 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Justin Jefferson4.6 rec, 55 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jordan Addison3.1 rec, 41 yds, 0.1 TD
NE
PASS Drake Maye241 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson52 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Romeo Doubs4.8 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Demario Douglas2.7 rec, 41 yds, 0.1 TD

Patriots by 4.2

The model leans Patriots by 4.2, winning 68% of 50 sims (projected 22-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Romeo Doubs (Patriots) vs Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings) - winner: Isaiah Rodgers, holding him to 43 yds on just 34% open, 0.8 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • Jordan Addison (Vikings) vs Carlton Davis III (Patriots) - winner: Carlton Davis III, holding him to 19 yds on just 39% open, 0.4 INT a game, - shut down all game.
In the Trenches
  • The Vikings' quarterback should have time; the Patriots win just 51% of reps for 6.1 sacks a game, Dre'Mont Jones (2.2 sacks, 6.9 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Patriots' line should hold up: the Vikings win just 50% of their reps, mustering 6.1 sacks and 27.5 pressures a game — Dallas Turner (3.1 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Look for Romeo Doubs to eat: 4.0 catches and 43 yds a game for the Patriots.
  • Look for Justin Jefferson to eat: 5.0 catches and 38 yds a game for the Vikings.
  • In coverage, Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings) travels and erases — only 30% separation allowed — and 0.9 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Patriots ride Rhamondre Stevenson: 12 carries, 52 yds a game (4.4 a carry), doing his damage to the right side.
  • Expect a steady diet of Aaron Jones: 47 yds a game at 3.5 a carry for the Vikings, churning to the right side.

Model vs Market

NE by 4.2 (68% to win) Projected total 39 pts Drake Maye ~241 pass yds (250+ 48%) Rhamondre Stevenson ~52 rush yds (70+ 24%) Romeo Doubs ~74 rec yds, 4.8 rec (70+ 52%)