MIA @ MIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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MIA Dolphins
15
PROJECTION
MIA 10 – MIN 15
Week 4 50-sim average Sun 4 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
MIA26%15 10
MIN74%24 15
24
MIN Vikings
✓ RESULT MIN by 5 model MIN by 9.6, off by 4.6
✓ SPREAD MIA +11 WIN line at publish MIN -11
• TOTAL 25 pts UNDER O/U 39.5, model 39

Projected Team Stats

MIA
MIN
26% Win Probability 74%
276 Total Yards 301
189 Passing Yards 214
86 Rushing Yards 86
2.0 Sacks 2.9
1.2 Turnovers 0.8

Projected Leaders

MIA
PASS Malik Willis209 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Jaylen Wright37 rush yds
REC Caleb Douglas3.7 rec, 57 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Malik Washington3.9 rec, 49 yds, 0.2 TD
MIN
PASS Kyler Murray214 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones43 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Justin Jefferson4.9 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jauan Jennings3.7 rec, 50 yds, 0.4 TD

Vikings by 9.6

Across 50 simulations, Vikings come out on top 74% of the time by an average of 9.6 (24-15).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings) - winner: Isaiah Rodgers, holding him to 22 yds on just 34% open, 1.0 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • Caleb Banks (Vikings) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Caleb Banks, winning 58% of reps for 0.4 sacks and 6.0 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
  • Justin Jefferson (Vikings) vs JuJu Brents (Dolphins) - winner: Justin Jefferson, open on 60% of routes for 5.5/7.5, 59 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Vikings — a 51% win rate, 5.5 sacks and 28.9 pressures a game (Dallas Turner (2.4 sacks, 7.3 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Vikings' quarterback should have time; the Dolphins win just 49% of reps for 3.7 sacks a game, Joshua Uche (2.4 sacks, 7.3 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • The Vikings' aerial attack runs through Justin Jefferson (59 yds a game, open on 60% of routes).
  • Caleb Douglas should find soft spots all day, open 49% of the time for 24 yds a game.
  • In coverage, Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings) travels and erases — only 29% separation allowed with 1.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Vikings' run game leans on Aaron Jones — 13 carries, 43 yds a game (3.4 a carry), churning off the right edge.
  • The Dolphins' run game leans on Jaylen Wright — 11 carries, 37 yds a game (3.4 a carry), with his best work to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineMIN -9.6
Market lineMIN -11
Sim total39
Market total39.5
MIN by 9.6 (74% to win) Projected total 39 pts Kyler Murray ~214 pass yds (250+ 20%) Justin Jefferson ~73 rec yds, 4.9 rec (70+ 46%)