MIA @ IND Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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MIA Dolphins
16
PROJECTION
Week 10 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
MIA16%16
IND84%27
27
IND Colts

Projected Team Stats

MIA
IND
16% Win Probability 84%
291 Total Yards 380
187 Passing Yards 247
104 Rushing Yards 133
1.3 Sacks 2.7
1.5 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

MIA
PASS Malik Willis206 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Ollie Gordon II56 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Malik Washington3.8 rec, 55 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Caleb Douglas3.5 rec, 51 yds, 0.2 TD
IND
PASS Daniel Jones233 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor79 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Josh Downs5.2 rec, 68 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tyler Warren5.3 rec, 60 yds, 0.6 TD

Colts by 10.7

Run it 50 times and Colts win 84% of them, by 10.7 on average (27-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Willie Gay (Dolphins) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 5.2 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
  • Adetomiwa Adebawore (Colts) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Adetomiwa Adebawore, winning 57% of reps for 0.9 sacks and 5.7 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Josh Downs (Colts) vs Chris Johnson (Dolphins) - winner: Josh Downs, open on 61% of routes for 6.6/8.6, 57 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Colts — a 51% win rate, 4.8 sacks and 27.1 pressures a game (Laiatu Latu (1.7 sacks, 6.8 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Dolphins get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (2.9 sacks a game), with Joshua Uche (2.3 sacks, 5.4 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Josh Downs is the engine of the Colts' passing game — 57 yds a game on 61% separation.
  • Malik Washington should find soft spots all day, open 52% of the time for 31 yds a game.
  • Few balls get past Charvarius Ward (Colts), who yields separation on 41% of routes with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Colts lean on Jonathan Taylor, 15 carries for 79 yds a game at 5.2 a carry, churning off the right edge.
  • Expect a steady diet of Ollie Gordon II: 56 yds a game at 4.3 a carry for the Dolphins, with the holes opening to the right side.

Model vs Market

IND by 10.7 (84% to win) Projected total 43 pts Daniel Jones ~233 pass yds (250+ 34%) Jonathan Taylor ~79 rush yds (70+ 64%) Josh Downs ~68 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 46%)