MIA @ BUF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 11 slate
MIA Dolphins
19
PROJECTION
Week 11 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
MIA36%19
BUF64%25
25
BUF Bills

Projected Team Stats

MIA
BUF
36% Win Probability 64%
324 Total Yards 363
223 Passing Yards 198
101 Rushing Yards 165
2.8 Sacks 2.3
1.2 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

MIA
PASS Malik Willis238 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Ollie Gordon II52 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Malik Washington4.6 rec, 65 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Caleb Douglas3.9 rec, 62 yds, 0.4 TD
BUF
PASS Josh Allen210 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH James Cook81 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC DJ Moore5.5 rec, 84 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Khalil Shakir3.0 rec, 37 yds

Bills by 6.0

Run it 50 times and Bills win 64% of them, by 6.0 on average (25-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • James Cook (Bills) vs Zayne Anderson (Dolphins) - winner: James Cook, 6.3 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Joshua Uche (Dolphins) vs Spencer Brown (Bills) - winner: Joshua Uche, winning 56% of reps for 2.8 sacks and 8.8 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
  • Greg Gaines (Bills) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Greg Gaines, winning 56% of reps for 0.2 sacks and 4.4 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
In the Trenches
  • The Bills may have to manufacture pressure, winning 52% up front for 4.9 sacks a game — Greg Rousseau (1.6 sacks, 5.8 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Bills' quarterback should have time; the Dolphins win just 52% of reps for 5.3 sacks a game, with Joshua Uche (2.8 sacks, 8.8 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • The Bills lean on DJ Moore, good for 6.6 catches and 65 yds a game while breaking open on 53% of his routes.
  • Expect the Dolphins to feed Malik Washington: 4.4 catches for 43 yds a game, open 61% of the time.
  • On the back end, Shaq Thompson (Bills) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 43% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of James Cook: 81 yds a game at 6.3 a carry for the Bills, churning to the right side.
  • The Dolphins lean on Ollie Gordon II, 12 carries for 52 yds a game at 4.3 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle.

Model vs Market

BUF by 6.0 (64% to win) Projected total 43 pts Malik Willis ~238 pass yds (250+ 40%) James Cook ~81 rush yds (70+ 52%) DJ Moore ~84 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 56%)