LV @ NE Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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LV Raiders
22
PROJECTION
LV 17 – NE 45
Week 5 50-sim average Sun 11 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
LV52%22 17
NE48%23 45
23
NE Patriots
✓ RESULT NE by 28 model NE by 1.6, off by 26.4
✗ SPREAD LV +4 LOSS line at publish NE -4
• TOTAL 62 pts OVER O/U 45, model 45

Projected Team Stats

LV
NE
52% Win Probability 48%
332 Total Yards 363
234 Passing Yards 239
98 Rushing Yards 124
3.0 Sacks 1.7
1.6 Turnovers 2.0

Projected Leaders

LV
PASS Kirk Cousins242 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty60 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tre Tucker6.0 rec, 69 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Brock Bowers4.8 rec, 50 yds, 0.4 TD
NE
PASS Drake Maye250 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson58 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Romeo Doubs5.2 rec, 75 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Mack Hollins3.1 rec, 44 yds, 0.2 TD

Patriots by 1.6

Across 50 simulations, Patriots come out on top 48% of the time by an average of 1.6 (23-22).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Tre Tucker (Raiders) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 37 yds on just 39% open, 1.1 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
  • Jalen Nailor (Raiders) vs Carlton Davis III (Patriots) - winner: Carlton Davis III, holding him to 21 yds on just 33% open, 0.9 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Rhamondre Stevenson, 4.7 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Cory Durden (Patriots) vs Jackson Powers-Johnson (Raiders) - winner: Cory Durden, winning 55% of reps for 2.0 sacks and 0.7 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
In the Trenches
  • The Patriots may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 3.7 sacks a game, and Dre'Mont Jones (0.8 sacks, 5.9 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Raiders may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 5.6 sacks a game — Maxx Crosby (3.6 sacks, 9.0 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Romeo Doubs should find soft spots all day, open 55% of the time for 50 yds a game.
  • Expect the Raiders to feed Tre Tucker: 5.7 catches for 37 yds a game, open 39% of the time.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Carlton Davis III (Patriots): 34% separation allowed, adding 0.4 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Rhamondre Stevenson is the workhorse for the Patriots, churning 58 yds a game at 4.7 a carry, finding room off right tackle and controlling the clock.
  • Ashton Jeanty carries the load for the Raiders, 16 carries for 60 yds a game at 3.8 a carry, with his best work to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNE -1.6
Market lineNE -4
Sim total45
Market total45
NE by 1.6 (48% to win) Projected total 45 pts Drake Maye ~250 pass yds (250+ 48%) Ashton Jeanty ~60 rush yds (70+ 32%) Romeo Doubs ~75 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 52%)