LV @ KC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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LV Raiders
24
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
LV36%24
KC64%26
26
KC Chiefs

Projected Team Stats

LV
KC
36% Win Probability 64%
348 Total Yards 398
269 Passing Yards 259
79 Rushing Yards 139
2.3 Sacks 1.7
1.1 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

LV
PASS Kirk Cousins276 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty44 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Tre Tucker6.2 rec, 82 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Brock Bowers4.4 rec, 53 yds, 0.4 TD
KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes271 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III95 rush yds, 1.0 TD
REC Rashee Rice5.9 rec, 76 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Travis Kelce4.2 rec, 53 yds, 0.6 TD

Chiefs by 1.4

Across 50 simulations, Chiefs come out on top 64% of the time by an average of 1.4 (26-24).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 7.2 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Drue Tranquill, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Chris Jones (Chiefs) vs Spencer Burford (Raiders) - winner: Chris Jones, winning 58% of reps for 2.2 sacks and 1.9 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
  • Rashee Rice (Chiefs) vs Taron Johnson (Raiders) - winner: Rashee Rice, open on 61% of routes for 8.0/9.7, 71 yds a game - separation all day.
In the Trenches
  • The Raiders' line should hold up: the Chiefs win just 51% of their reps, mustering 3.6 sacks and 13.0 pressures a game (Chris Jones (2.2 sacks, 1.9 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Raiders may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 4.9 sacks a game — Maxx Crosby (3.3 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Rashee Rice should find soft spots all day, open 61% of the time for 71 yds a game.
  • Tre Tucker is the go-to for the Raiders, separating on 45% of routes for 48 yds a game.
  • Christian Roland-Wallace (Chiefs) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 40% of his coverage snaps, adding 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Kenneth Walker III: 95 yds a game at 7.2 a carry for the Chiefs, with his best work off the right edge.
  • On the ground, the Raiders ride Ashton Jeanty: 14 carries, 44 yds a game (3.1 a carry), with his best work off right tackle against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

KC by 1.4 (64% to win) Projected total 50 pts Kirk Cousins ~276 pass yds (250+ 68%) Kenneth Walker III ~95 rush yds (70+ 64%) Tre Tucker ~82 rec yds, 6.2 rec (70+ 58%)