LV @ ARZ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 17 slate
LV Raiders
26
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
LV48%26
ARZ52%26
26
ARZ Cardinals

Projected Team Stats

LV
ARZ
48% Win Probability 52%
366 Total Yards 374
281 Passing Yards 301
86 Rushing Yards 73
2.0 Sacks 1.6
1.3 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

LV
PASS Kirk Cousins283 pass yds, 2.1 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty46 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tre Tucker6.7 rec, 89 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Brock Bowers4.4 rec, 55 yds, 0.6 TD
ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett310 pass yds, 2.3 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love28 rush yds
REC Michael Wilson8.9 rec, 118 yds, 0.8 TD
REC Trey McBride5.1 rec, 59 yds, 0.6 TD

Raiders by 0.6

Run it 50 times and Raiders win 48% of them, by 0.6 on average (26-26).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Maxx Crosby (Raiders) vs Jayden Williams (Cardinals) - winner: Maxx Crosby, winning 56% of reps for 3.5 sacks and 7.9 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Eric Stokes (Raiders) - winner: Eric Stokes, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
  • Michael Wilson (Cardinals) vs Taron Johnson (Raiders) - winner: Michael Wilson, open on 59% of routes for 12.0/14.6, 109 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Raiders may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 4.4 sacks a game (Maxx Crosby (3.5 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Cardinals — a 50% win rate yields only 3.4 sacks and 11.8 pressures a game, led by Josh Sweat (2.4 sacks, 4.3 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Expect the Raiders to feed Tre Tucker: 6.3 catches for 63 yds a game, open 44% of the time.
  • The Cardinals lean on Michael Wilson, good for 12.0 catches and 109 yds a game while breaking open on 59% of his routes.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Garrett Williams (Cardinals): 40% separation allowed, good for 0.9 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Ashton Jeanty sets the tempo for the Raiders — 46 yds a game on the ground at 3.4 a carry, with his best work to the right side.
  • The Cardinals lean on Jeremiyah Love, 9 carries for 28 yds a game at 3.0 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.

Model vs Market

LV by 0.6 (48% to win) Projected total 52 pts Jacoby Brissett ~310 pass yds (250+ 88%) Ashton Jeanty ~46 rush yds (70+ 16%) Michael Wilson ~118 rec yds, 8.9 rec (70+ 90%)