LAC @ MIA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 16 slate
LAC Chargers
20
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
LAC78%20
MIA22%10
10
MIA Dolphins

Projected Team Stats

LAC
MIA
78% Win Probability 22%
326 Total Yards 241
207 Passing Yards 173
119 Rushing Yards 68
3.1 Sacks 3.6
1.2 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

LAC
PASS Justin Herbert218 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton50 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Ladd McConkey4.6 rec, 68 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Quentin Johnston3.5 rec, 53 yds, 0.4 TD
MIA
PASS Malik Willis195 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Ollie Gordon II37 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Malik Washington4.1 rec, 52 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Caleb Douglas3.5 rec, 51 yds, 0.2 TD

Chargers by 10.2

Chargers are the pick here, favoured by 10.2 and winning 78% of 50 sims (projected 20-10).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Ollie Gordon II (Dolphins) vs Tony Jefferson (Chargers) - winner: Tony Jefferson, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Scott Matlock (Chargers) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Scott Matlock, winning 57% of reps for 0.1 sacks and 3.2 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Chargers — a 51% win rate yields only 5.6 sacks and 29.2 pressures a game, with Tuli Tuipulotu (3.0 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Chargers' line should hold up: the Dolphins win just 51% of their reps, mustering 6.5 sacks and 29.7 pressures a game — Joshua Uche (3.6 sacks, 8.6 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Ladd McConkey's show for the Chargers: 44 yds a game, open on 55% of routes.
  • Through the air it is Malik Washington's show for the Dolphins: 31 yds a game, open on 43% of routes.
  • Tarheeb Still (Chargers) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 37% of routes, adding 0.6 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Omarion Hampton is the workhorse for the Chargers, churning 50 yds a game at 3.9 a carry, churning off the right edge.
  • The Dolphins' run game leans on Ollie Gordon II — 12 carries, 37 yds a game (3.2 a carry) into a stout front.

Model vs Market

LAC by 10.2 (78% to win) Projected total 30 pts Justin Herbert ~218 pass yds (250+ 24%) Omarion Hampton ~50 rush yds (70+ 18%) Ladd McConkey ~68 rec yds, 4.6 rec (70+ 38%)