LAC @ KC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 6 slate
LAC Chargers
15
PROJECTION
LAC 6 – KC 22
Week 6 50-sim average Sun 18 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
LAC38%15 6
KC62%19 22
19
KC Chiefs
✓ RESULT KC by 16 model KC by 3.5, off by 12.5
✗ SPREAD LAC +8 LOSS line at publish KC -8
✓ TOTAL 28 pts UNDER O/U 42.5, model 34 lean under

Projected Team Stats

LAC
KC
38% Win Probability 62%
301 Total Yards 321
213 Passing Yards 210
88 Rushing Yards 112
2.4 Sacks 3.6
1.3 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

LAC
PASS Justin Herbert236 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton35 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Ladd McConkey4.9 rec, 67 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tre Harris4.4 rec, 57 yds, 0.3 TD
KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes219 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III74 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Rashee Rice5.2 rec, 65 yds
REC Xavier Worthy3.3 rec, 40 yds, 0.2 TD

Chiefs by 3.5

The sim sides with Chiefs: a 3.5-point edge and a 62% win rate over 50 runs (19-15).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Derwin James Jr. (Chargers) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 5.3 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Drue Tranquill, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Chris Jones (Chiefs) vs Kayode Awosika (Chargers) - winner: Chris Jones, winning 56% of reps for 1.0 sacks and 5.2 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
In the Trenches
  • The Chiefs may have to manufacture pressure, winning 52% up front for 6.8 sacks a game, and Felix Anudike-Uzomah (2.5 sacks, 8.5 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Chargers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (4.9 sacks a game), led by Tuli Tuipulotu (3.2 sacks, 7.7 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Chiefs will live and die with Rashee Rice, who comes open 51% of the time (54 yds a game).
  • Through the air it is Ladd McConkey's show for the Chargers: 43 yds a game, open on 55% of routes.
  • In coverage, Nohl Williams (Chiefs) travels and erases — only 37% separation allowed, good for 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Kenneth Walker III is the workhorse for the Chiefs, churning 74 yds a game at 5.3 a carry, churning off the right edge and controlling the clock.
  • Omarion Hampton carries the load for the Chargers, 12 carries for 35 yds a game at 3.0 a carry, churning to the right side with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

Sim lineKC -3.5
Market lineKC -8
Sim total34
Market total42.5
KC by 3.5 (62% to win) Projected total 34 pts Justin Herbert ~236 pass yds (250+ 38%) Kenneth Walker III ~74 rush yds (70+ 40%) Ladd McConkey ~67 rec yds, 4.9 rec (70+ 42%)