LAC @ DEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 18 slate
LAC Chargers
12
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
LAC26%12
DEN74%16
16
DEN Broncos

Projected Team Stats

LAC
DEN
26% Win Probability 74%
278 Total Yards 298
172 Passing Yards 217
106 Rushing Yards 81
3.0 Sacks 3.7
1.7 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

LAC
PASS Justin Herbert197 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton46 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Ladd McConkey5.0 rec, 62 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Tre Harris3.4 rec, 38 yds, 0.2 TD
DEN
PASS Bo Nix234 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins39 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle6.5 rec, 82 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Courtland Sutton3.7 rec, 46 yds, 0.2 TD

Broncos by 4.0

The sim sides with Broncos: a 4.0-point edge and a 74% win rate over 50 runs (16-12).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Nik Bonitto (Broncos) vs Travis Burke (Chargers) - winner: Nik Bonitto, winning 58% of reps for 2.7 sacks and 6.2 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Zach Allen (Broncos) vs Cole Strange (Chargers) - winner: Zach Allen, winning 56% of reps for 0.6 sacks and 7.0 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
In the Trenches
  • The Chargers' quarterback should have time; the Broncos win just 53% of reps for 7.2 sacks a game, with Jonah Elliss (2.4 sacks, 8.7 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Chargers — a 51% win rate, 5.7 sacks and 27.2 pressures a game, and Tuli Tuipulotu (3.7 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Jaylen Waddle headlines the Broncos' receiving corps — 7.4 catches for 56 yds a game on 50% separation.
  • The Chargers' aerial attack runs through Ladd McConkey (34 yds a game, open on 54% of routes).
  • In coverage, Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos) travels and erases — only 35% separation allowed with 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Broncos lean on J.K. Dobbins, 11 carries for 39 yds a game at 3.4 a carry, churning off right tackle.
  • Expect a steady diet of Omarion Hampton: 46 yds a game at 3.5 a carry for the Chargers, with the holes opening off right tackle.

Model vs Market

DEN by 4.0 (74% to win) Projected total 29 pts Bo Nix ~234 pass yds (250+ 38%) Omarion Hampton ~46 rush yds (70+ 8%) Jaylen Waddle ~82 rec yds, 6.5 rec (70+ 64%)