LAC @ BLT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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LAC Chargers
9
PROJECTION
Week 10 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
LAC8%9
BLT92%21
21
BLT Ravens

Projected Team Stats

LAC
BLT
8% Win Probability 92%
223 Total Yards 301
161 Passing Yards 192
63 Rushing Yards 110
2.5 Sacks 3.3
2.0 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

LAC
PASS Justin Herbert183 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton24 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Ladd McConkey4.5 rec, 54 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Tre Harris3.6 rec, 40 yds, 0.2 TD
BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson197 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry51 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Zay Flowers4.7 rec, 66 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Rashod Bateman3.0 rec, 40 yds, 0.2 TD

Ravens by 12.1

The sim sides with Ravens: a 12.1-point edge and a 92% win rate over 50 runs (21-9).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Marlon Humphrey (Ravens) - winner: Marlon Humphrey, holding him to 2.1 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
  • Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Tony Jefferson (Chargers) - winner: Tony Jefferson, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs Tarheeb Still (Chargers) - winner: Zay Flowers, open on 61% of routes for 5.9/7.8, 54 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Ravens may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 6.1 sacks a game, and Trenton Simpson (2.6 sacks, 8.0 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Chargers — a 51% win rate yields only 5.3 sacks and 26.9 pressures a game, Tuli Tuipulotu (2.7 sacks, 7.0 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Zay Flowers should find soft spots all day, open 61% of the time for 54 yds a game.
  • The Chargers' aerial attack runs through Ladd McConkey (33 yds a game, open on 47% of routes).
  • Receivers won't find much room against Kyle Hamilton (Ravens): 29% separation allowed with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Derrick Henry: 51 yds a game at 3.2 a carry for the Ravens, doing his damage off right tackle.
  • Omarion Hampton carries the load for the Chargers, 11 carries for 24 yds a game at 2.1 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

BLT by 12.1 (92% to win) Projected total 31 pts Lamar Jackson ~197 pass yds (250+ 20%) Derrick Henry ~51 rush yds (70+ 18%) Zay Flowers ~66 rec yds, 4.7 rec (70+ 42%)