LA @ TB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 17 slate
LA Rams
30
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
LA92%30
TB8%13
13
TB Buccaneers

Projected Team Stats

LA
TB
92% Win Probability 8%
426 Total Yards 239
302 Passing Yards 174
124 Rushing Yards 65
3.2 Sacks 1.9
1.3 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

LA
PASS Matthew Stafford272 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams68 rush yds, 1.0 TD
REC Davante Adams5.6 rec, 91 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Puka Nacua6.7 rec, 87 yds, 0.5 TD
TB
PASS Baker Mayfield198 pass yds, 0.5 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving34 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka4.4 rec, 55 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Chris Godwin4.8 rec, 45 yds

Rams by 17.3

Run it 50 times and Rams win 92% of them, by 17.3 on average (30-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Emeka Egbuka (Buccaneers) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Trent McDuffie, holding him to 32 yds on just 33% open, 1.0 INT a game, - shut down all game.
  • Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Kamren Curl (Rams) - winner: Kamren Curl, holding him to 2.6 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Jacob Parrish (Buccaneers) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 66% of routes for 8.6/11.2, 77 yds a game - money in this spot.
  • Davante Adams (Rams) vs Zyon McCollum (Buccaneers) - winner: Davante Adams, open on 59% of routes for 5.6/8.5, 60 yds a game - separation all day.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Rams — a 50% win rate yields only 5.8 sacks and 31.0 pressures a game, with Byron Young (1.9 sacks, 7.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Buccaneers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 4.1 sacks a game — Yaya Diaby (1.1 sacks, 6.0 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Puka Nacua is the go-to for the Rams, separating on 66% of routes for 77 yds a game.
  • The Buccaneers lean on Emeka Egbuka, good for 3.8 catches and 32 yds a game while breaking open on 33% of his routes.
  • Trent McDuffie (Rams) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 30% of routes, good for 1.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Rams lean on Kyren Williams, 15 carries for 68 yds a game at 4.6 a carry, finding room off right tackle.
  • Bucky Irving carries the load for the Buccaneers, 13 carries for 34 yds a game at 2.6 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

LA by 17.3 (92% to win) Projected total 42 pts Matthew Stafford ~272 pass yds (250+ 64%) Kyren Williams ~68 rush yds (70+ 44%) Davante Adams ~91 rec yds, 5.6 rec (70+ 64%)