LA @ SF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION
← Week 14 slate
LA
LA
SF
LA
Rams
28
PROJECTION
| WIN% | PROJ | |
|---|---|---|
| LA | 82% | 28 |
| SF | 18% | 14 |
14
SF
49ers
Projected Team Stats
LASF
82%
Win Probability
18%
412
Total Yards
259
278
Passing Yards
178
134
Rushing Yards
81
3.6
Sacks
2.0
1.2
Turnovers
1.3
Projected Leaders
LA
PASS
Matthew Stafford269 pass yds, 1.9 TD
Matthew Stafford269 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH
Kyren Williams74 rush yds, 0.7 TD
Kyren Williams74 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC
Puka Nacua6.9 rec, 86 yds, 0.6 TD
Puka Nacua6.9 rec, 86 yds, 0.6 TD
REC
Davante Adams5.3 rec, 74 yds, 0.6 TD
Davante Adams5.3 rec, 74 yds, 0.6 TD
SF
PASS
Brock Purdy203 pass yds, 0.8 TD
Brock Purdy203 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH
Christian McCaffrey43 rush yds, 0.1 TD
Christian McCaffrey43 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC
Mike Evans4.5 rec, 63 yds, 0.1 TD
Mike Evans4.5 rec, 63 yds, 0.1 TD
REC
George Kittle2.6 rec, 29 yds, 0.2 TD
George Kittle2.6 rec, 29 yds, 0.2 TD
Rams by 13.5
Across 50 simulations, Rams come out on top 82% of the time by an average of 13.5 (28-14).
Matchup Breakdown
How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulationsKeys to the Game
- Christian McCaffrey (49ers) vs Emmanuel Forbes (Rams) - winner: Emmanuel Forbes, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
- Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Fred Warner (49ers) - winner: Kyren Williams, 4.8 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
- Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Deommodore Lenoir (49ers) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 63% of routes for 8.6/11.5, 71 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
- Pressure could be scarce for the Rams — a 51% win rate, 6.2 sacks and 32.6 pressures a game, and Byron Young (2.3 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game) headlines it.
- The 49ers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (4.2 sacks a game), with Nick Bosa (3.3 sacks, 7.3 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
- Puka Nacua should find soft spots all day, open 63% of the time for 71 yds a game.
- Mike Evans is the engine of the 49ers' passing game — 48 yds a game on 45% separation.
- On the back end, Trent McDuffie (Rams) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 39% of routes with 0.4 INT a game.
On the Ground
- Kyren Williams is the workhorse for the Rams, churning 74 yds a game at 4.8 a carry, finding room to the right side and controlling the clock.
- Christian McCaffrey carries the load for the 49ers, 15 carries for 43 yds a game at 2.9 a carry with tough sledding.
Model vs Market
LA by 13.5 (82% to win) Projected total 42 pts Matthew Stafford ~269 pass yds (250+ 64%) Kyren Williams ~74 rush yds (70+ 50%) Puka Nacua ~86 rec yds, 6.9 rec (70+ 72%)