LA @ ARZ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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LA Rams
31
PROJECTION
Week 10 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
LA92%31
ARZ8%13
13
ARZ Cardinals

Projected Team Stats

LA
ARZ
92% Win Probability 8%
457 Total Yards 258
320 Passing Yards 226
137 Rushing Yards 32
2.0 Sacks 2.2
1.2 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

LA
PASS Matthew Stafford296 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams81 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Puka Nacua7.7 rec, 103 yds, 0.7 TD
REC Davante Adams5.5 rec, 83 yds, 0.5 TD
ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett241 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love11 rush yds
REC Michael Wilson7.7 rec, 85 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Trey McBride4.4 rec, 42 yds, 0.2 TD

Rams by 18.1

The sim sides with Rams: a 18.1-point edge and a 92% win rate over 50 runs (31-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Michael Wilson (Cardinals) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Trent McDuffie, holding him to 61 yds on just 35% open, 1.6 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Emmanuel Forbes (Rams) - winner: Emmanuel Forbes, holding him to 1.3 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Jack Gibbens (Cardinals) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.2 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Garrett Williams (Cardinals) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 64% of routes for 8.8/11.9, 81 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
  • Davante Adams (Rams) vs Max Melton (Cardinals) - winner: Davante Adams, open on 62% of routes for 4.7/7.4, 52 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • The Rams may have to manufacture pressure, winning 52% up front for 4.5 sacks a game — Byron Young (1.3 sacks, 7.1 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Cardinals get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (4.3 sacks a game), Josh Sweat (3.1 sacks, 6.0 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • The Rams' aerial attack runs through Puka Nacua (81 yds a game, open on 64% of routes).
  • Look for Michael Wilson to eat: 8.7 catches and 61 yds a game for the Cardinals.
  • In coverage, Trent McDuffie (Rams) travels and erases — only 31% separation allowed with 1.5 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Kyren Williams is the workhorse for the Rams, churning 81 yds a game at 5.2 a carry, churning off the right edge and controlling the clock.
  • The Cardinals' run game leans on Jeremiyah Love — 8 carries, 11 yds a game (1.3 a carry) into a stout front.

Model vs Market

LA by 18.1 (92% to win) Projected total 44 pts Matthew Stafford ~296 pass yds (250+ 78%) Kyren Williams ~81 rush yds (70+ 60%) Puka Nacua ~103 rec yds, 7.7 rec (70+ 82%)