KC @ MIA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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KC Chiefs
29
PROJECTION
KC 24 – MIA 10
Week 3 50-sim average Sun 27 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
KC80%29 24
MIA20%18 10
18
MIA Dolphins
✓ RESULT KC by 14 model KC by 10.4, off by 3.6
✗ SPREAD MIA +11.5 LOSS line at publish KC -11.5
• TOTAL 34 pts UNDER O/U 46, model 47

Projected Team Stats

KC
MIA
80% Win Probability 20%
388 Total Yards 318
247 Passing Yards 213
141 Rushing Yards 104
3.4 Sacks 2.1
0.6 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes247 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III85 rush yds, 1.0 TD
REC Rashee Rice5.7 rec, 73 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Travis Kelce4.2 rec, 54 yds, 0.6 TD
MIA
PASS Malik Willis234 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane76 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Caleb Douglas4.0 rec, 58 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Malik Washington3.9 rec, 48 yds, 0.2 TD

Chiefs by 10.4

Across 50 simulations, Chiefs come out on top 80% of the time by an average of 10.4 (29-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Zayne Anderson (Dolphins) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 6.9 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: De'Von Achane, 5.8 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Nohl Williams (Chiefs) - winner: Nohl Williams, holding him to 28 yds on just 37% open, 0.7 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
  • Peter Woods (Chiefs) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Peter Woods, winning 58% of reps for 0.3 sacks and 6.3 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
  • Chris Jones (Chiefs) vs Kadyn Proctor (Dolphins) - winner: Chris Jones, winning 55% of reps for 0.5 sacks and 3.4 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Chiefs — a 53% win rate, 6.1 sacks and 33.9 pressures a game (George Karlaftis (3.1 sacks, 9.1 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Chiefs' quarterback should have time; the Dolphins win just 49% of reps for 4.4 sacks a game, Joshua Uche (2.9 sacks, 7.1 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Chiefs to feed Rashee Rice: 6.2 catches for 55 yds a game, open 58% of the time.
  • Caleb Douglas is the go-to for the Dolphins, separating on 55% of routes for 41 yds a game.
  • Few balls get past Nohl Williams (Chiefs), who yields separation on 33% of routes, adding 0.8 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Kenneth Walker III: 85 yds a game at 6.9 a carry for the Chiefs, with the holes opening off right tackle.
  • De'Von Achane sets the tempo for the Dolphins — 76 yds a game on the ground at 5.8 a carry, finding room off right tackle and moving the chains.

Model vs Market

Sim lineKC -10.4
Market lineKC -11.5
Sim total47
Market total46
KC by 10.4 (80% to win) Projected total 47 pts Patrick Mahomes ~247 pass yds (250+ 46%) Kenneth Walker III ~85 rush yds (70+ 58%) Rashee Rice ~73 rec yds, 5.7 rec (70+ 54%)