KC @ LV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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KC Chiefs
26
PROJECTION
KC 30 – LV 27
Week 4 50-sim average Sun 4 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
KC70%26 30
LV30%20 27
20
LV Raiders
✓ RESULT KC by 3 model KC by 5.9, off by 2.9
✗ SPREAD KC -4.5 LOSS line at publish KC -4.5
✗ TOTAL 57 pts OVER O/U 48, model 45 lean under

Projected Team Stats

KC
LV
70% Win Probability 30%
370 Total Yards 331
239 Passing Yards 253
131 Rushing Yards 78
1.5 Sacks 2.0
1.2 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes243 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III85 rush yds, 1.2 TD
REC Rashee Rice5.9 rec, 76 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tyquan Thornton3.0 rec, 46 yds, 0.3 TD
LV
PASS Kirk Cousins259 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty42 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Tre Tucker6.5 rec, 77 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Brock Bowers4.9 rec, 58 yds, 0.4 TD

Chiefs by 5.9

The model leans Chiefs by 5.9, winning 70% of 50 sims (projected 26-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 7.0 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Drue Tranquill, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Chris Jones (Chiefs) vs Spencer Burford (Raiders) - winner: Chris Jones, winning 57% of reps for 2.1 sacks and 0.8 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
  • Rashee Rice (Chiefs) vs Eric Stokes (Raiders) - winner: Rashee Rice, open on 60% of routes for 5.9/9.1, 52 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Raiders' line should hold up: the Chiefs win just 49% of their reps, mustering 3.2 sacks and 9.6 pressures a game, and Chris Jones (2.1 sacks, 0.8 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Raiders may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 4.0 sacks a game — Maxx Crosby (2.8 sacks, 7.6 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • The Chiefs' aerial attack runs through Rashee Rice (52 yds a game, open on 60% of routes).
  • The Raiders lean on Tre Tucker, good for 7.0 catches and 54 yds a game while breaking open on 42% of his routes.
  • Few balls get past Nohl Williams (Chiefs), who yields separation on 36% of routes, good for 0.7 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Kenneth Walker III is the workhorse for the Chiefs, churning 85 yds a game at 7.0 a carry, with his best work off right tackle and controlling the clock.
  • The Raiders lean on Ashton Jeanty, 15 carries for 42 yds a game at 2.9 a carry, finding room off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineKC -5.9
Market lineKC -4.5
Sim total45
Market total48
KC by 5.9 (70% to win) Projected total 45 pts Kirk Cousins ~259 pass yds (250+ 50%) Kenneth Walker III ~85 rush yds (70+ 62%) Tre Tucker ~77 rec yds, 6.5 rec (70+ 56%)