KC @ LA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 13 slate
KC Chiefs
17
PROJECTION
Week 13 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
KC22%17
LA78%27
27
LA Rams

Projected Team Stats

KC
LA
22% Win Probability 78%
301 Total Yards 427
205 Passing Yards 313
96 Rushing Yards 115
1.9 Sacks 2.7
1.3 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes222 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III69 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Rashee Rice5.6 rec, 62 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Xavier Worthy4.2 rec, 47 yds, 0.2 TD
LA
PASS Matthew Stafford302 pass yds, 2.1 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams68 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Puka Nacua8.2 rec, 108 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Davante Adams5.8 rec, 84 yds, 0.6 TD

Rams by 10.7

Run it 50 times and Rams win 78% of them, by 10.7 on average (27-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Rashee Rice (Chiefs) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Trent McDuffie, holding him to 36 yds on just 39% open, 1.0 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Quentin Lake (Rams) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 4.8 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
  • Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Nohl Williams (Chiefs) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 63% of routes for 10.7/12.5, 100 yds a game - the edge through the air.
  • Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Kyren Williams, 4.6 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Davante Adams (Rams) vs Mansoor Delane (Chiefs) - winner: Davante Adams, open on 60% of routes for 6.2/8.4, 60 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • The Rams get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (4.8 sacks a game), with Byron Young (1.8 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Chiefs get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (3.9 sacks a game), with Felix Anudike-Uzomah (0.8 sacks, 5.8 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • The Rams' aerial attack runs through Puka Nacua (100 yds a game, open on 63% of routes).
  • The Chiefs lean on Rashee Rice, good for 5.6 catches and 36 yds a game while breaking open on 39% of his routes.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Trent McDuffie (Rams): 34% separation allowed, adding 0.9 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Kyren Williams carries the load for the Rams, 15 carries for 68 yds a game at 4.6 a carry, with his best work to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.
  • The Chiefs' run game leans on Kenneth Walker III — 14 carries, 69 yds a game (4.8 a carry), doing his damage off right tackle and moving the chains.

Model vs Market

LA by 10.7 (78% to win) Projected total 44 pts Matthew Stafford ~302 pass yds (250+ 72%) Kenneth Walker III ~69 rush yds (70+ 36%) Puka Nacua ~108 rec yds, 8.2 rec (70+ 90%)