KC @ CIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 14 slate
KC Chiefs
25
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
KC48%25
CIN52%26
26
CIN Bengals

Projected Team Stats

KC
CIN
48% Win Probability 52%
390 Total Yards 388
252 Passing Yards 334
139 Rushing Yards 53
1.9 Sacks 2.4
1.0 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes268 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III93 rush yds, 1.0 TD
REC Rashee Rice6.0 rec, 74 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Travis Kelce4.4 rec, 54 yds, 0.5 TD
CIN
PASS Joe Burrow340 pass yds, 2.4 TD
RUSH Chase Brown33 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase7.5 rec, 101 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Tee Higgins4.9 rec, 75 yds, 0.5 TD

Bengals by 0.8

The model leans Bengals by 0.8, winning 52% of 50 sims (projected 26-25).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 6.5 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Drue Tranquill, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Chris Jones (Chiefs) vs Dylan Fairchild (Bengals) - winner: Chris Jones, winning 56% of reps for 2.6 sacks and 0.1 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
  • Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) vs Nohl Williams (Chiefs) - winner: Ja'Marr Chase, open on 58% of routes for 9.5/11.5, 85 yds a game - separation all day.
  • Tee Higgins (Bengals) vs Mansoor Delane (Chiefs) - winner: Tee Higgins, open on 62% of routes for 5.5/7.0, 57 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Bengals — a 50% win rate yields only 4.9 sacks and 20.7 pressures a game, with Myles Murphy (1.5 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Chiefs get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (3.9 sacks a game), with Chris Jones (2.6 sacks, 0.1 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Ja'Marr Chase is the go-to for the Bengals, separating on 58% of routes for 85 yds a game.
  • Look for Rashee Rice to eat: 6.1 catches and 50 yds a game for the Chiefs.
On the Ground
  • Chase Brown sets the tempo for the Bengals — 33 yds a game on the ground at 2.7 a carry into a stout front.
  • Kenneth Walker III carries the load for the Chiefs, 14 carries for 93 yds a game at 6.5 a carry, churning to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

CIN by 0.8 (52% to win) Projected total 51 pts Joe Burrow ~340 pass yds (250+ 90%) Kenneth Walker III ~93 rush yds (70+ 66%) Ja'Marr Chase ~101 rec yds, 7.5 rec (70+ 78%)