JAX @ NYG Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 11 slate
JAX Jaguars
22
PROJECTION
Week 11 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
JAX80%22
NYG20%13
13
NYG Giants

Projected Team Stats

JAX
NYG
80% Win Probability 20%
361 Total Yards 264
254 Passing Yards 211
107 Rushing Yards 53
1.5 Sacks 2.5
1.0 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence258 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten57 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Parker Washington5.0 rec, 79 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jakobi Meyers3.7 rec, 50 yds, 0.3 TD
NYG
PASS Jameis Winston221 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo31 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Malik Nabers5.1 rec, 63 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Darnell Mooney3.4 rec, 42 yds

Jaguars by 9.6

Jaguars are the pick here, favoured by 9.6 and winning 80% of 50 sims (projected 22-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Jarrian Jones (Jaguars) - winner: Jarrian Jones, holding him to 2.2 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
  • Abdul Carter (Giants) vs Cole Van Lanen (Jaguars) - winner: Abdul Carter, winning 57% of reps for 3.4 sacks and 7.4 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
  • Parker Washington (Jaguars) vs Andru Phillips (Giants) - winner: Parker Washington, open on 63% of routes for 5.8/8.1, 60 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • The Giants' quarterback should have time; the Jaguars win just 49% of reps for 3.4 sacks a game, with Josh Hines-Allen (2.5 sacks, 5.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Giants get stonewalled often up front, winning only 52% of reps (4.6 sacks a game), with Abdul Carter (3.4 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Parker Washington should find soft spots all day, open 63% of the time for 60 yds a game.
  • The Giants will live and die with Malik Nabers, who comes open 58% of the time (52 yds a game).
  • Ventrell Miller (Jaguars) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 34% of routes, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Bhayshul Tuten is the workhorse for the Jaguars, churning 57 yds a game at 4.2 a carry, finding room off right tackle.
  • On the ground, the Giants ride Cam Skattebo: 14 carries, 31 yds a game (2.2 a carry) against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

JAX by 9.6 (80% to win) Projected total 35 pts Trevor Lawrence ~258 pass yds (250+ 46%) Bhayshul Tuten ~57 rush yds (70+ 30%) Parker Washington ~79 rec yds, 5.0 rec (70+ 56%)