JAX @ IND Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 18 slate
JAX Jaguars
26
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
JAX72%26
IND28%18
18
IND Colts

Projected Team Stats

JAX
IND
72% Win Probability 28%
369 Total Yards 296
263 Passing Yards 209
106 Rushing Yards 88
1.8 Sacks 1.8
1.0 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence267 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten52 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Parker Washington5.0 rec, 83 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jakobi Meyers3.9 rec, 53 yds, 0.3 TD
IND
PASS Daniel Jones222 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor56 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tyler Warren5.4 rec, 55 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Josh Downs4.4 rec, 49 yds, 0.2 TD

Jaguars by 7.7

Run it 50 times and Jaguars win 72% of them, by 7.7 on average (26-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Adetomiwa Adebawore (Colts) vs Ezra Cleveland (Jaguars) - winner: Adetomiwa Adebawore, winning 55% of reps for 1.6 sacks and 1.4 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
  • Parker Washington (Jaguars) vs Charvarius Ward (Colts) - winner: Parker Washington, open on 60% of routes for 5.8/7.9, 69 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • The Jaguars get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (3.6 sacks a game), led by Josh Hines-Allen (2.8 sacks, 6.1 pressures a game).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Colts — a 50% win rate, 3.8 sacks and 16.0 pressures a game (Laiatu Latu (1.0 sacks, 5.3 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Parker Washington's show for the Jaguars: 69 yds a game, open on 60% of routes.
  • Josh Downs is the go-to for the Colts, separating on 58% of routes for 38 yds a game.
  • Ventrell Miller (Jaguars) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 33% of routes, adding 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Bhayshul Tuten: 52 yds a game at 4.2 a carry for the Jaguars, with his best work off the right edge.
  • The Colts lean on Jonathan Taylor, 15 carries for 56 yds a game at 3.6 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle.

Model vs Market

JAX by 7.7 (72% to win) Projected total 44 pts Trevor Lawrence ~267 pass yds (250+ 56%) Jonathan Taylor ~56 rush yds (70+ 16%) Parker Washington ~83 rec yds, 5.0 rec (70+ 56%)