JAX @ DAL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 16 slate
JAX Jaguars
24
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
JAX64%24
DAL36%22
22
DAL Cowboys

Projected Team Stats

JAX
DAL
64% Win Probability 36%
385 Total Yards 332
272 Passing Yards 252
114 Rushing Yards 80
2.7 Sacks 2.2
1.4 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence282 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten65 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Parker Washington5.3 rec, 81 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jakobi Meyers4.0 rec, 54 yds, 0.2 TD
DAL
PASS Dak Prescott268 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams43 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb5.7 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
REC George Pickens4.1 rec, 55 yds, 0.2 TD

Jaguars by 2.1

The sim sides with Jaguars: a 2.1-point edge and a 64% win rate over 50 runs (24-22).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Josh Hines-Allen (Jaguars) vs Terence Steele (Cowboys) - winner: Josh Hines-Allen, winning 55% of reps for 3.6 sacks and 8.6 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Jake Ferguson (Cowboys) vs Foyesade Oluokun (Jaguars) - winner: Foyesade Oluokun, holding him to 19 yds on just 36% open, 0.3 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
  • CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) vs Montaric Brown (Jaguars) - winner: CeeDee Lamb, open on 63% of routes for 8.1/9.8, 69 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • The Jaguars get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (5.5 sacks a game), Josh Hines-Allen (3.6 sacks, 8.6 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Jaguars' quarterback should have time; the Cowboys win just 50% of reps for 4.0 sacks a game, with Rashan Gary (2.7 sacks, 6.2 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Parker Washington should find soft spots all day, open 55% of the time for 65 yds a game.
  • The Cowboys lean on CeeDee Lamb, good for 8.1 catches and 69 yds a game while breaking open on 63% of his routes.
  • Ventrell Miller (Jaguars) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 31% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Bhayshul Tuten: 65 yds a game at 4.6 a carry for the Jaguars, finding room to the right side.
  • Javonte Williams carries the load for the Cowboys, 11 carries for 43 yds a game at 3.9 a carry, finding room to the right side.

Model vs Market

JAX by 2.1 (64% to win) Projected total 45 pts Trevor Lawrence ~282 pass yds (250+ 70%) Bhayshul Tuten ~65 rush yds (70+ 40%) Parker Washington ~81 rec yds, 5.3 rec (70+ 62%)