JAX @ CIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 4 slate
JAX Jaguars
23
PROJECTION
JAX 22 – CIN 17
Week 4 50-sim average Sun 4 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
JAX52%23 22
CIN48%22 17
22
CIN Bengals
✓ RESULT JAX by 5 model JAX by 0.7, off by 4.3
✓ SPREAD JAX +2.5 WIN line at publish CIN -2.5
✓ TOTAL 39 pts UNDER O/U 51.5, model 45 lean under

Projected Team Stats

JAX
CIN
52% Win Probability 48%
351 Total Yards 344
249 Passing Yards 292
102 Rushing Yards 51
2.0 Sacks 2.3
1.5 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence254 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten48 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Parker Washington5.2 rec, 78 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Brian Thomas Jr.3.1 rec, 45 yds, 0.3 TD
CIN
PASS Joe Burrow298 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Chase Brown29 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase6.8 rec, 82 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tee Higgins4.9 rec, 65 yds, 0.2 TD

Jaguars by 0.7

Jaguars are the pick here, favoured by 0.7 and winning 52% of 50 sims (projected 23-22).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Josh Hines-Allen (Jaguars) vs Orlando Brown Jr. (Bengals) - winner: Josh Hines-Allen, winning 55% of reps for 3.7 sacks and 6.3 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
  • Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Ventrell Miller (Jaguars) - winner: Ventrell Miller, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Parker Washington (Jaguars) vs Tacario Davis (Bengals) - winner: Parker Washington, open on 65% of routes for 6.1/8.3, 66 yds a game - money in this spot.
  • Tee Higgins (Bengals) vs Jourdan Lewis (Jaguars) - winner: Tee Higgins, open on 60% of routes for 6.3/7.5, 53 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Bengals' line should hold up: the Jaguars win just 50% of their reps, mustering 4.3 sacks and 12.5 pressures a game (Josh Hines-Allen (3.7 sacks, 6.3 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Bengals — a 51% win rate, 4.6 sacks and 22.1 pressures a game — Boye Mafe (1.5 sacks, 6.4 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • The Jaguars will live and die with Parker Washington, who comes open 65% of the time (66 yds a game).
  • The Bengals' aerial attack runs through Ja'Marr Chase (75 yds a game, open on 57% of routes).
  • In coverage, Antonio Johnson (Jaguars) travels and erases — only 34% separation allowed with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Jaguars' run game leans on Bhayshul Tuten — 13 carries, 48 yds a game (3.7 a carry), with his best work off the right edge.
  • Chase Brown carries the load for the Bengals, 11 carries for 29 yds a game at 2.7 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

Sim lineJAX -0.7
Market lineCIN -2.5
Sim total45
Market total51.5
JAX by 0.7 (52% to win) Projected total 45 pts Joe Burrow ~298 pass yds (250+ 86%) Bhayshul Tuten ~48 rush yds (70+ 12%) Ja'Marr Chase ~82 rec yds, 6.8 rec (70+ 66%)