IND @ PHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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IND Colts
18
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
IND42%18
PHI58%20
20
PHI Eagles

Projected Team Stats

IND
PHI
42% Win Probability 58%
313 Total Yards 311
208 Passing Yards 209
105 Rushing Yards 103
3.2 Sacks 1.9
1.2 Turnovers 0.8

Projected Leaders

IND
PASS Daniel Jones214 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor68 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Josh Downs4.6 rec, 58 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Tyler Warren4.7 rec, 47 yds, 0.4 TD
PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts228 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley48 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC DeVonta Smith4.8 rec, 68 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Dontayvion Wicks2.9 rec, 45 yds, 0.2 TD

Eagles by 2.7

Across 50 simulations, Eagles come out on top 58% of the time by an average of 2.7 (20-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (Eagles) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 4.8 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
In the Trenches
  • The Colts' line should hold up: the Eagles win just 50% of their reps, mustering 3.8 sacks and 15.6 pressures a game — Jonathan Greenard (2.6 sacks, 6.8 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Eagles' quarterback should have time; the Colts win just 50% of reps for 5.7 sacks a game, JT Tuimoloau (2.2 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • DeVonta Smith is the engine of the Eagles' passing game — 54 yds a game on 55% separation.
  • Josh Downs is the engine of the Colts' passing game — 36 yds a game on 43% separation.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Quinyon Mitchell (Eagles): 36% separation allowed with 0.5 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Eagles hand it to Saquon Barkley early and often, 11 carries for 48 yds a game at 4.4 a carry, with his best work off right tackle.
  • Jonathan Taylor is the workhorse for the Colts, churning 68 yds a game at 4.8 a carry, finding room off the right edge and controlling the clock.

Model vs Market

PHI by 2.7 (58% to win) Projected total 38 pts Jalen Hurts ~228 pass yds (250+ 38%) Jonathan Taylor ~68 rush yds (70+ 36%) DeVonta Smith ~68 rec yds, 4.8 rec (70+ 42%)