HST @ TEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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HST Texans
22
PROJECTION
HST 26 – TEN 3
Week 5 50-sim average Sun 11 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
HST82%22 26
TEN18%12 3
12
TEN Titans
✓ RESULT HST by 23 model HST by 9.4, off by 13.6
✓ SPREAD HST -7 WIN line at publish HST -7
✓ TOTAL 29 pts UNDER O/U 37.5, model 34 lean under

Projected Team Stats

HST
TEN
82% Win Probability 18%
346 Total Yards 224
272 Passing Yards 183
74 Rushing Yards 41
4.2 Sacks 2.4
1.1 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

HST
PASS C.J. Stroud273 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH David Montgomery39 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Nico Collins6.1 rec, 92 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Xavier Hutchinson3.8 rec, 59 yds, 0.3 TD
TEN
PASS Cam Ward211 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard19 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Carnell Tate5.7 rec, 67 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson3.9 rec, 44 yds, 0.2 TD

Texans by 9.4

The model leans Texans by 9.4, winning 82% of 50 sims (projected 22-12).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Tony Pollard (Titans) vs Tremon Smith (Texans) - winner: Tremon Smith, holding him to 2.0 yds a carry - running into a wall.
  • David Montgomery (Texans) vs Alontae Taylor (Titans) - winner: Alontae Taylor, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Nico Collins (Texans) vs Cor'Dale Flott (Titans) - winner: Nico Collins, open on 63% of routes for 7.0/9.5, 70 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
  • Logan Hall (Texans) vs Atonio Mafi (Titans) - winner: Logan Hall, winning 56% of reps for 0.1 sacks and 3.4 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
In the Trenches
  • The Texans get stonewalled often up front, winning only 52% of reps (7.9 sacks a game), led by Will Anderson Jr. (4.2 sacks, 10.9 pressures a game).
  • The Texans' line should hold up: the Titans win just 51% of their reps, mustering 4.4 sacks and 24.4 pressures a game — John Franklin-Myers (1.4 sacks, 7.1 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Nico Collins' show for the Texans: 70 yds a game, open on 63% of routes.
  • The Titans will live and die with Carnell Tate, who comes open 48% of the time (44 yds a game).
  • In coverage, Jalen Pitre (Texans) travels and erases — only 30% separation allowed, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • David Montgomery sets the tempo for the Texans — 39 yds a game on the ground at 2.9 a carry, churning off right tackle into a stout front.
  • On the ground, the Titans ride Tony Pollard: 10 carries, 19 yds a game (2.0 a carry) against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineHST -9.4
Market lineHST -7
Sim total34
Market total37.5
HST by 9.4 (82% to win) Projected total 34 pts C.J. Stroud ~273 pass yds (250+ 72%) Nico Collins ~92 rec yds, 6.1 rec (70+ 72%)