HST @ PIT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 13 slate
HST Texans
19
PROJECTION
Week 13 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
HST40%19
PIT60%21
21
PIT Steelers

Projected Team Stats

HST
PIT
40% Win Probability 60%
303 Total Yards 362
248 Passing Yards 259
55 Rushing Yards 103
2.2 Sacks 2.8
0.9 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

HST
PASS C.J. Stroud268 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH David Montgomery30 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Nico Collins5.7 rec, 85 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr.3.5 rec, 51 yds, 0.3 TD
PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers271 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren72 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf6.8 rec, 80 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Roman Wilson3.8 rec, 50 yds, 0.3 TD

Steelers by 1.9

Steelers are the pick here, favoured by 1.9 and winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 21-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Jalen Pitre (Texans) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 5.4 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • David Montgomery (Texans) vs Cole Holcomb (Steelers) - winner: Cole Holcomb, holding him to 2.6 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
  • Marvin Harrison Jr. (Texans) vs Asante Samuel Jr. (Steelers) - winner: Asante Samuel Jr., holding him to 28 yds on just 39% open, 0.5 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
  • Keeanu Benton (Steelers) vs Ed Ingram (Texans) - winner: Keeanu Benton, winning 55% of reps for 1.1 sacks and 4.4 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
In the Trenches
  • The Steelers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 52% of reps (5.3 sacks a game), Alex Highsmith (1.6 sacks, 8.1 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Texans may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 4.4 sacks a game — Will Anderson Jr. (3.3 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Steelers to feed D.K. Metcalf: 6.8 catches for 57 yds a game, open 42% of the time.
  • Through the air it is Nico Collins' show for the Texans: 57 yds a game, open on 57% of routes.
  • In coverage, Derek Stingley Jr. (Texans) travels and erases — only 40% separation allowed, adding 0.7 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Jaylen Warren sets the tempo for the Steelers — 72 yds a game on the ground at 5.4 a carry, finding room to the right side and moving the chains.
  • On the ground, the Texans ride David Montgomery: 11 carries, 30 yds a game (2.6 a carry) against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

PIT by 1.9 (60% to win) Projected total 41 pts Aaron Rodgers ~271 pass yds (250+ 62%) Jaylen Warren ~72 rush yds (70+ 46%) Nico Collins ~85 rec yds, 5.7 rec (70+ 64%)