HST @ PHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 16 slate
HST Texans
19
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
HST58%19
PHI42%16
16
PHI Eagles

Projected Team Stats

HST
PHI
58% Win Probability 42%
303 Total Yards 271
235 Passing Yards 189
68 Rushing Yards 82
3.8 Sacks 3.0
1.1 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

HST
PASS C.J. Stroud252 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH David Montgomery36 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Nico Collins5.1 rec, 73 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr.3.4 rec, 45 yds, 0.2 TD
PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts218 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley39 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC DeVonta Smith4.7 rec, 65 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Dontayvion Wicks3.2 rec, 46 yds, 0.2 TD

Texans by 2.7

Texans are the pick here, favoured by 2.7 and winning 58% of 50 sims (projected 19-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • David Montgomery (Texans) vs Zack Baun (Eagles) - winner: Zack Baun, holding him to 2.8 yds a carry - running into a wall.
In the Trenches
  • The Texans may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 7.9 sacks a game (Will Anderson Jr. (4.6 sacks, 10.2 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Texans' quarterback should have time; the Eagles win just 52% of reps for 5.8 sacks a game, with Jonathan Greenard (3.5 sacks, 9.7 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Nico Collins headlines the Texans' receiving corps — 6.7 catches for 52 yds a game on 53% separation.
  • DeVonta Smith headlines the Eagles' receiving corps — 6.1 catches for 55 yds a game on 51% separation.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Jalen Pitre (Texans): 33% separation allowed — and 0.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • David Montgomery is the workhorse for the Texans, churning 36 yds a game at 2.8 a carry, finding room off right tackle against a stingy front.
  • Saquon Barkley is the workhorse for the Eagles, churning 39 yds a game at 3.6 a carry.

Model vs Market

HST by 2.7 (58% to win) Projected total 34 pts C.J. Stroud ~252 pass yds (250+ 52%) Nico Collins ~73 rec yds, 5.1 rec (70+ 50%)