HST @ GB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 17 slate
HST Texans
21
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
HST48%21
GB52%22
22
GB Packers

Projected Team Stats

HST
GB
48% Win Probability 52%
349 Total Yards 315
265 Passing Yards 279
84 Rushing Yards 36
1.5 Sacks 2.3
1.5 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

HST
PASS C.J. Stroud275 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH David Montgomery40 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Nico Collins5.7 rec, 86 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Dalton Schultz4.1 rec, 47 yds, 0.4 TD
GB
PASS Jordan Love284 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Josh Jacobs10 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Christian Watson6.7 rec, 98 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Matthew Golden4.9 rec, 70 yds, 0.4 TD

Packers by 0.6

The model leans Packers by 0.6, winning 52% of 50 sims (projected 22-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Tremon Smith (Texans) - winner: Tremon Smith, holding him to 1.0 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Anthony Belton (Packers) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 57% of reps for 2.7 sacks and 7.2 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
  • David Montgomery (Texans) vs Isaiah McDuffie (Packers) - winner: Isaiah McDuffie, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Nico Collins (Texans) vs Keisean Nixon (Packers) - winner: Nico Collins, open on 61% of routes for 7.5/9.9, 73 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Texans' quarterback should have time; the Packers win just 50% of reps for 5.2 sacks a game, with Lukas Van Ness (2.3 sacks, 5.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Packers' line should hold up: the Texans win just 52% of their reps, mustering 3.5 sacks and 14.2 pressures a game, and Will Anderson Jr. (2.7 sacks, 7.2 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • The Packers lean on Christian Watson, good for 9.2 catches and 84 yds a game while breaking open on 55% of his routes.
  • Expect the Texans to feed Nico Collins: 7.5 catches for 73 yds a game, open 61% of the time.
  • Jalen Pitre (Texans) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 39% of his coverage snaps, adding 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • MarShawn Lloyd carries the load for the Packers, 9 carries for 10 yds a game at 1.0 a carry with tough sledding.
  • On the ground, the Texans ride David Montgomery: 13 carries, 40 yds a game (3.1 a carry), with his best work off the right edge against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

GB by 0.6 (52% to win) Projected total 43 pts Jordan Love ~284 pass yds (250+ 76%) Christian Watson ~98 rec yds, 6.7 rec (70+ 74%)