HST @ CLV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

HST Texans

PROJECTION

Week 10 50-sim average

	WIN%	PROJ
HST	86%	22
CLV	14%	13

CLV Browns

HST

CLV

86% Win Probability 14%

322 Total Yards 233

256 Passing Yards 180

66 Rushing Yards 53

3.8 Sacks 2.2

1.2 Turnovers 1.4

HST

PASS

C.J. Stroud256 pass yds, 1.2 TD

RUSH

David Montgomery28 rush yds, 0.3 TD

REC

Nico Collins5.0 rec, 76 yds, 0.3 TD

REC

Dalton Schultz4.0 rec, 48 yds, 0.3 TD

CLV

PASS

Deshaun Watson207 pass yds, 0.8 TD

RUSH

Quinshon Judkins27 rush yds, 0.1 TD

REC

Denzel Boston5.4 rec, 86 yds, 0.3 TD

REC

KC Concepcion3.4 rec, 35 yds, 0.1 TD

Across 50 simulations, Texans come out on top 86% of the time by an average of 9.0 (22-13).

Keys to the Game

Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Tremon Smith (Texans) - winner: Tremon Smith, holding him to 2.3 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
David Montgomery (Texans) vs Quincy Williams (Browns) - winner: Quincy Williams, holding him to 2.4 yds a carry - the front wins up front.

In the Trenches

The Texans get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (7.3 sacks a game), with Will Anderson Jr. (4.4 sacks, 9.4 pressures a game) setting the tone.
The Texans' line should hold up: the Browns win just 51% of their reps, mustering 4.4 sacks and 25.3 pressures a game, and Jared Verse (1.2 sacks, 7.6 pressures a game) headlines it.

Through the Air

The Texans will live and die with Nico Collins, who comes open 54% of the time (54 yds a game).
The Browns lean on Denzel Boston, good for 6.5 catches and 63 yds a game while breaking open on 49% of his routes.
Jalen Pitre (Texans) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 36% of routes, good for 0.1 INT a game.

On the Ground

The Texans' run game leans on David Montgomery — 12 carries, 28 yds a game (2.4 a carry) into a stout front.
Expect a steady diet of Quinshon Judkins: 27 yds a game at 2.3 a carry for the Browns.