GB @ NYJ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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GB Packers
20
PROJECTION
GB 20 – NYJ 17
Week 2 50-sim average Sun 20 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
GB58%20 20
NYJ42%16 17
16
NYJ Jets
✓ RESULT GB by 3 model GB by 3.4, off by 0.4
✓ SPREAD NYJ +3.5 WIN line at publish GB -3.5
✓ TOTAL 37 pts UNDER O/U 44.5, model 36 lean under

Projected Team Stats

GB
NYJ
58% Win Probability 42%
306 Total Yards 293
250 Passing Yards 189
56 Rushing Yards 104
2.2 Sacks 1.5
1.0 Turnovers 1.6

Projected Leaders

GB
PASS Jordan Love253 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH MarShawn Lloyd19 rush yds
REC Christian Watson4.9 rec, 81 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tucker Kraft3.6 rec, 45 yds, 0.3 TD
NYJ
PASS Geno Smith201 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Breece Hall67 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Garrett Wilson4.8 rec, 54 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Omar Cooper Jr.3.7 rec, 39 yds, 0.1 TD

Packers by 3.4

Across 50 simulations, Packers come out on top 58% of the time by an average of 3.4 (20-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (Jets) - winner: Jarvis Brownlee Jr., holding him to 2.0 yds a carry - running into a wall.
  • Micah Parsons (Packers) vs Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Jets) - winner: Micah Parsons, winning 57% of reps for 1.7 sacks and 4.1 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Christian Watson (Packers) vs Nahshon Wright (Jets) - winner: Christian Watson, open on 62% of routes for 7.2/9.2, 69 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Packers — a 49% win rate yields only 4.4 sacks and 18.3 pressures a game, led by Micah Parsons (1.7 sacks, 4.1 pressures a game).
  • The Packers' quarterback should have time; the Jets win just 52% of reps for 3.2 sacks a game, with Will McDonald IV (0.8 sacks, 5.9 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Christian Watson should find soft spots all day, open 62% of the time for 69 yds a game.
  • Garrett Wilson is the go-to for the Jets, separating on 56% of routes for 41 yds a game.
  • Few balls get past Xavier McKinney (Packers), who yields separation on 41% of routes, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • MarShawn Lloyd sets the tempo for the Packers — 19 yds a game on the ground at 2.0 a carry into a stout front.
  • Breece Hall is the workhorse for the Jets, churning 67 yds a game at 4.2 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineGB -3.4
Market lineGB -3.5
Sim total36
Market total44.5
GB by 3.4 (58% to win) Projected total 36 pts Jordan Love ~253 pass yds (250+ 54%) Breece Hall ~67 rush yds (70+ 40%) Christian Watson ~81 rec yds, 4.9 rec (70+ 64%)