GB @ NO Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 13 slate
GB Packers
26
PROJECTION
Week 13 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
GB58%26
NO42%21
21
NO Saints

Projected Team Stats

GB
NO
58% Win Probability 42%
368 Total Yards 345
318 Passing Yards 277
51 Rushing Yards 69
2.1 Sacks 1.4
1.1 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

GB
PASS Jordan Love320 pass yds, 2.3 TD
RUSH MarShawn Lloyd21 rush yds
REC Christian Watson6.8 rec, 107 yds, 0.7 TD
REC Matthew Golden5.2 rec, 78 yds, 0.3 TD
NO
PASS Tyler Shough291 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Alvin Kamara30 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Chris Olave7.9 rec, 111 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Devaughn Vele4.1 rec, 50 yds, 0.2 TD

Packers by 4.2

Packers are the pick here, favoured by 4.2 and winning 58% of 50 sims (projected 26-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Martin Emerson Jr. (Saints) - winner: Martin Emerson Jr., holding him to 1.9 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Lukas Van Ness (Packers) vs Taliese Fuaga (Saints) - winner: Lukas Van Ness, winning 56% of reps for 2.1 sacks and 5.8 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
  • Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs Isaiah McDuffie (Packers) - winner: Isaiah McDuffie, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
  • Chris Olave (Saints) vs Keisean Nixon (Packers) - winner: Chris Olave, open on 61% of routes for 10.7/12.9, 100 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
  • Christian Watson (Packers) vs Kool-Aid McKinstry (Saints) - winner: Christian Watson, open on 63% of routes for 7.7/11.3, 83 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • The Packers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 4.5 sacks a game — Lukas Van Ness (2.1 sacks, 5.8 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Packers' line should hold up: the Saints win just 51% of their reps, mustering 3.3 sacks and 7.4 pressures a game (Nathan Shepherd (2.1 sacks, 0.1 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Packers lean on Christian Watson, good for 7.7 catches and 83 yds a game while breaking open on 63% of his routes.
  • Chris Olave is the engine of the Saints' passing game — 100 yds a game on 61% separation.
  • Few balls get past Javon Bullard (Packers), who yields separation on 40% of routes — and 0.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • MarShawn Lloyd is the workhorse for the Packers, churning 21 yds a game at 1.9 a carry against a stingy front.
  • Alvin Kamara is the workhorse for the Saints, churning 30 yds a game at 3.0 a carry against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

GB by 4.2 (58% to win) Projected total 47 pts Jordan Love ~320 pass yds (250+ 86%) Chris Olave ~111 rec yds, 7.9 rec (70+ 80%)