GB @ CHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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GB Packers
22
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
GB54%22
CHI46%21
21
CHI Bears

Projected Team Stats

GB
CHI
54% Win Probability 46%
349 Total Yards 341
279 Passing Yards 210
69 Rushing Yards 130
3.0 Sacks 1.4
1.8 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

GB
PASS Jordan Love282 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH MarShawn Lloyd26 rush yds
REC Christian Watson6.5 rec, 94 yds, 0.7 TD
REC Matthew Golden5.3 rec, 75 yds, 0.4 TD
CHI
PASS Caleb Williams223 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift56 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Rome Odunze5.7 rec, 82 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Luther Burden III3.6 rec, 42 yds, 0.2 TD

Packers by 1.1

Packers are the pick here, favoured by 1.1 and winning 54% of 50 sims (projected 22-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Tyrique Stevenson (Bears) - winner: Tyrique Stevenson, holding him to 2.6 yds a carry - running into a wall.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Packers — a 49% win rate, 6.3 sacks and 27.4 pressures a game (Lukas Van Ness (2.8 sacks, 5.7 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Packers' quarterback should have time; the Bears win just 52% of reps for 3.0 sacks a game, led by Montez Sweat (0.7 sacks, 4.6 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Christian Watson is the engine of the Packers' passing game — 67 yds a game on 57% separation.
  • Rome Odunze is the engine of the Bears' passing game — 67 yds a game on 51% separation.
  • In coverage, Devin Bush (Bears) travels and erases — only 34% separation allowed with 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of MarShawn Lloyd: 26 yds a game at 2.6 a carry for the Packers.
  • The Bears lean on D'Andre Swift, 13 carries for 56 yds a game at 4.2 a carry, with the holes opening to the right side.

Model vs Market

GB by 1.1 (54% to win) Projected total 43 pts Jordan Love ~282 pass yds (250+ 74%) D'Andre Swift ~56 rush yds (70+ 26%) Christian Watson ~94 rec yds, 6.5 rec (70+ 66%)