DET @ ATL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 13 slate
DET Lions
31
PROJECTION
Week 13 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
DET72%31
ATL28%23
23
ATL Falcons

Projected Team Stats

DET
ATL
72% Win Probability 28%
411 Total Yards 358
295 Passing Yards 217
117 Rushing Yards 141
2.1 Sacks 1.4
0.6 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

DET
PASS Jared Goff285 pass yds, 2.4 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs76 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown6.0 rec, 85 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Sam LaPorta4.8 rec, 60 yds, 0.7 TD
ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.229 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson100 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Drake London5.7 rec, 75 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Kyle Pitts3.4 rec, 42 yds, 0.4 TD

Lions by 7.4

Lions are the pick here, favoured by 7.4 and winning 72% of 50 sims (projected 31-23).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Chuck Clark (Lions) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 6.3 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Jake Matthews (Falcons) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 57% of reps for 3.1 sacks and 6.7 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Harold Perkins Jr. (Falcons) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.2 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Drake London (Falcons) vs D.J. Reed (Lions) - winner: Drake London, open on 65% of routes for 8.5/10.4, 69 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs Billy Bowman Jr. (Falcons) - winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown, open on 64% of routes for 7.2/9.6, 72 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
In the Trenches
  • The Falcons' line should hold up: the Lions win just 50% of their reps, mustering 4.1 sacks and 13.0 pressures a game (Aidan Hutchinson (3.1 sacks, 6.7 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Falcons may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 2.9 sacks a game — Cameron Thomas (1.2 sacks, 2.3 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • The Lions will live and die with Amon-Ra St. Brown, who comes open 64% of the time (72 yds a game).
  • Drake London headlines the Falcons' receiving corps — 8.5 catches for 69 yds a game on 65% separation.
  • Brian Branch (Lions) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 40% of routes — and 0.0 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Lions ride Jahmyr Gibbs: 15 carries, 76 yds a game (5.2 a carry), with the holes opening off the right edge and controlling the clock.
  • On the ground, the Falcons ride Bijan Robinson: 16 carries, 100 yds a game (6.3 a carry), with the holes opening off right tackle and controlling the clock.

Model vs Market

DET by 7.4 (72% to win) Projected total 54 pts Jared Goff ~285 pass yds (250+ 70%) Bijan Robinson ~100 rush yds (70+ 70%) Amon-Ra St. Brown ~85 rec yds, 6.0 rec (70+ 64%)