DEN @ SF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DEN Broncos
19
PROJECTION
DEN 14 – SF 24
Week 4 50-sim average Sun 4 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
DEN36%19 14
SF64%23 24
23
SF 49ers
✓ RESULT SF by 10 model SF by 3.2, off by 6.8
✓ SPREAD SF -2.5 WIN line at publish SF -2.5
✓ TOTAL 38 pts UNDER O/U 47.5, model 42 lean under

Projected Team Stats

DEN
SF
36% Win Probability 64%
322 Total Yards 349
216 Passing Yards 231
107 Rushing Yards 118
3.2 Sacks 2.2
1.6 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

DEN
PASS Bo Nix229 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins50 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle6.8 rec, 93 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Courtland Sutton3.0 rec, 37 yds, 0.2 TD
SF
PASS Brock Purdy246 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey62 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Mike Evans4.7 rec, 67 yds, 0.4 TD
REC George Kittle3.5 rec, 42 yds, 0.4 TD

49ers by 3.2

The sim sides with 49ers: a 3.2-point edge and a 64% win rate over 50 runs (23-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs Dre Greenlaw (49ers) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 4.7 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the 49ers — a 50% win rate yields only 4.6 sacks and 24.0 pressures a game, led by Nick Bosa (2.7 sacks, 8.4 pressures a game).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Broncos — a 51% win rate yields only 6.7 sacks and 32.0 pressures a game, Jonah Elliss (2.0 sacks, 9.1 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Mike Evans should find soft spots all day, open 47% of the time for 50 yds a game.
  • The Broncos lean on Jaylen Waddle, good for 8.1 catches and 64 yds a game while breaking open on 55% of his routes.
  • On the back end, Fred Warner (49ers) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 34% of routes, good for 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Christian McCaffrey is the workhorse for the 49ers, churning 62 yds a game at 4.0 a carry, finding room off the right edge.
  • Expect a steady diet of J.K. Dobbins: 50 yds a game at 4.7 a carry for the Broncos, doing his damage to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineSF -3.2
Market lineSF -2.5
Sim total42
Market total47.5
SF by 3.2 (64% to win) Projected total 42 pts Brock Purdy ~246 pass yds (250+ 44%) Christian McCaffrey ~62 rush yds (70+ 36%) Jaylen Waddle ~93 rec yds, 6.8 rec (70+ 64%)