DEN @ NYJ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 14 slate
DEN Broncos
16
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
DEN48%16
NYJ52%16
16
NYJ Jets

Projected Team Stats

DEN
NYJ
48% Win Probability 52%
277 Total Yards 282
195 Passing Yards 179
83 Rushing Yards 103
3.3 Sacks 1.9
1.4 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

DEN
PASS Bo Nix206 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins40 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle6.8 rec, 83 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Courtland Sutton2.9 rec, 35 yds
NYJ
PASS Geno Smith198 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Breece Hall59 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Garrett Wilson5.7 rec, 70 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Adonai Mitchell2.6 rec, 31 yds, 0.1 TD

Jets by 0.6

The sim sides with Jets: a 0.6-point edge and a 52% win rate over 50 runs (16-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
In the Trenches
  • The Jets may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 4.1 sacks a game — Kingsley Enagbare (1.1 sacks, 6.5 pressures a game) out front.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Broncos — a 50% win rate, 6.1 sacks and 26.8 pressures a game — Jonah Elliss (2.2 sacks, 7.7 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Look for Garrett Wilson to eat: 6.1 catches and 50 yds a game for the Jets.
  • The Broncos will live and die with Jaylen Waddle, who comes open 54% of the time (49 yds a game).
  • Few balls get past Minkah Fitzpatrick (Jets), who yields separation on 36% of routes, adding 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Jets hand it to Breece Hall early and often, 15 carries for 59 yds a game at 3.9 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle.
  • On the ground, the Broncos ride J.K. Dobbins: 12 carries, 40 yds a game (3.4 a carry), doing his damage to the right side.

Model vs Market

NYJ by 0.6 (52% to win) Projected total 32 pts Bo Nix ~206 pass yds (250+ 22%) Breece Hall ~59 rush yds (70+ 28%) Jaylen Waddle ~83 rec yds, 6.8 rec (70+ 64%)