DEN @ NE Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 17 slate
DEN Broncos
16
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
DEN42%16
NE58%20
20
NE Patriots

Projected Team Stats

DEN
NE
42% Win Probability 58%
296 Total Yards 331
182 Passing Yards 201
114 Rushing Yards 130
3.3 Sacks 3.0
2.0 Turnovers 1.8

Projected Leaders

DEN
PASS Bo Nix204 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins60 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle6.9 rec, 83 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Courtland Sutton2.6 rec, 31 yds, 0.2 TD
NE
PASS Drake Maye218 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson56 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Romeo Doubs3.8 rec, 52 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Efton Chism III3.6 rec, 46 yds, 0.2 TD

Patriots by 4.5

Patriots are the pick here, favoured by 4.5 and winning 58% of 50 sims (projected 20-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Nik Bonitto (Broncos) vs Morgan Moses (Patriots) - winner: Nik Bonitto, winning 56% of reps for 2.9 sacks and 6.4 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
  • Courtland Sutton (Broncos) vs Carlton Davis III (Patriots) - winner: Carlton Davis III, holding him to 15 yds on just 38% open, 0.7 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • Zach Allen (Broncos) vs Ben Brown (Patriots) - winner: Zach Allen, winning 56% of reps for 0.5 sacks and 4.9 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
In the Trenches
  • The Patriots get stonewalled often up front, winning only 52% of reps (5.8 sacks a game), Dre'Mont Jones (2.1 sacks, 8.5 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Broncos get stonewalled often up front, winning only 52% of reps (6.4 sacks a game), led by Jonah Elliss (2.0 sacks, 9.0 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Patriots will live and die with Romeo Doubs, who comes open 44% of the time (37 yds a game).
  • Look for Jaylen Waddle to eat: 6.8 catches and 50 yds a game for the Broncos.
  • Carlton Davis III (Patriots) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 36% of routes — and 0.5 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Patriots ride Rhamondre Stevenson: 13 carries, 56 yds a game (4.5 a carry), with his best work to the right side.
  • J.K. Dobbins carries the load for the Broncos, 13 carries for 60 yds a game at 4.5 a carry, finding room off right tackle.

Model vs Market

NE by 4.5 (58% to win) Projected total 36 pts Drake Maye ~218 pass yds (250+ 18%) J.K. Dobbins ~60 rush yds (70+ 32%) Jaylen Waddle ~83 rec yds, 6.9 rec (70+ 54%)