DAL @ WAS Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DAL Cowboys
23
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
DAL72%23
WAS28%20
20
WAS Commanders

Projected Team Stats

DAL
WAS
72% Win Probability 28%
358 Total Yards 334
275 Passing Yards 227
83 Rushing Yards 108
3.4 Sacks 2.2
1.4 Turnovers 0.8

Projected Leaders

DAL
PASS Dak Prescott284 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams48 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb6.1 rec, 86 yds, 0.7 TD
REC George Pickens4.8 rec, 69 yds, 0.4 TD
WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels249 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt54 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Terry McLaurin5.1 rec, 73 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Chigoziem Okonkwo3.6 rec, 41 yds, 0.4 TD

Cowboys by 3.1

Across 50 simulations, Cowboys come out on top 72% of the time by an average of 3.1 (23-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) vs Rasul Douglas (Commanders) - winner: CeeDee Lamb, open on 63% of routes for 7.1/9.8, 64 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Cowboys — a 50% win rate, 6.6 sacks and 27.7 pressures a game — Rashan Gary (3.6 sacks, 9.2 pressures a game) out front.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Commanders — a 51% win rate yields only 4.4 sacks and 21.3 pressures a game, Odafe Oweh (2.6 sacks, 9.2 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • The Cowboys lean on CeeDee Lamb, good for 7.1 catches and 64 yds a game while breaking open on 63% of his routes.
  • Through the air it is Terry McLaurin's show for the Commanders: 45 yds a game, open on 45% of routes.
  • Joey Porter Jr. (Cowboys) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 39% of routes, adding 0.5 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Javonte Williams sets the tempo for the Cowboys — 48 yds a game on the ground at 4.1 a carry, finding room off right tackle.
  • The Commanders hand it to Jacory Croskey-Merritt early and often, 14 carries for 54 yds a game at 3.8 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge.

Model vs Market

DAL by 3.1 (72% to win) Projected total 42 pts Dak Prescott ~284 pass yds (250+ 72%) Jacory Croskey-Merritt ~54 rush yds (70+ 20%) CeeDee Lamb ~86 rec yds, 6.1 rec (70+ 68%)